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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: paul_philp who wrote (59728)	12/3/2002 5:59:28 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

The fear is not that Iraq will use WMD but that they will sell them to terrorist organizations. There is also the perception that Saddam might use WMDs if he has them to upset the flow of oil to the West and thereby cause an economic catastrophe. The mere possibility the he might use them gives him a lot of power.

To: paul_philp who wrote (59728)	12/3/2002 7:27:07 PM
From: jcky	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

The fear is not that Iraq will use WMD but that they will sell them to terrorist organizations. I think this issue has been discussed extensively on this thread before and can be summarized by the following salient points: 1) Saddam is a control freak. Is he more or less likely to give away WMDs to global terrorists without knowing how the terrorists will act or behave? 2) Saddam is a survivor. By giving away WMDs into uncertain hands, how will the use of these weapons affect Iraq's security? Everyone is looking for a casus belli to implement regime change in Baghdad and a mushroom cloud is certain to guarantee Saddam's demise. 3) Saddam is a power addict. Would Saddam simply hand away the prized WMDs that he has so diligently worked for the past decades? Why would he share this status symbol; and especially, if he is to become the first Arab nuclear power in the Mideast? His leverage of power in the international community is achieved by his potential ability (threat) to proliferate nuclear secrets and technologies. Once Saddam actually gives away his WMDs, he then becomes a target for regime change. When you consider all these points, it becomes clear that the most likely case for Saddam to employ or share his WMDs is when his regime is threatened and he has absolutely nothing to lose or fear from their use. The American intelligence community has failed to predict Saddam's past actions because they were employing the technique of "mirroring," whereby, we assumed Saddam would act in the very same manner we would if we were superimposed into his situation. Thus, some have concluded that Saddam is irrational and behaves unpredictably. While it is possible that Saddam is truly an irrational actor in the game of international politics, I find it equally plausible that American intelligence neglected to employ the right methods or individuals capable of reading Saddam's motives (Pollack seemed to have done quite well). There were too many analysts thinking like Americans or Israelis when we needed an Arab mindset.