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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (18080)	12/3/2002 9:05:47 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 30712

Does anyone know if we close on the lows tomorrow if we could have 3-black crows with that black oxy? TIA.

To: ajtj99 who wrote (18080)	12/3/2002 9:23:13 PM
From: Jeffrey S. Lillie	Respond to of 30712

its amazing how many different methods of charting there are. PNF,candles,forks,gartleys,elliot, etc. I have a pretty decent handle on candles and consider myself a beginner in PNF and Elliot and a total rookie at forks, gartleys and whatever others are out there. They all have their merits. looking at those forks, it seems there is a lot of lattitude in placement of the tines. Not knoking them as i have seen them work beautifuly, just a rookie observation. jeff

To: ajtj99 who wrote (18080)	12/4/2002 12:17:14 AM
From: Softechie	Respond to of 30712

Market Summary, by Rob Peebles Speculating in spite of ourselves December 3, 2002 Stocks generally moved lower today with tech stocks leading the retreat. The Morgan Stanley High Tech index fell 3.7% with chip stocks losing 5% and networking stocks down 4.7%. The Nasdaq gave up 2.4%. The broader market faded as well with the S&P 500 down 1.5%, the Dow losing 119 points or 1.3%, and the Russell 2000 down 1.9%. The few groups that managed gains included gold, utility, and oil stocks. The Gold Bug index gained 4.5% on a $2.70 pop in the gold price. Treasury yields drifted lower. Valued added for long term investors This morning Merrill reiterated its “buy” rating on Merck opining, “We expect Merck to reiterate its comfort with flat EPS in 2002 and double-digit EPS growth in 2003.” Just before the market opened, however, Merck said it would hold a conference call on Dec. 5. The Dec. 5 call is in addition to a scheduled Dec. 10 call. Merrill figured the call might be just the venue to lower guidance, so with this new information, Merrill downgraded Merck from a “buy” to a “sell.” But not long after Merrill delivered the downgrade, Merck said that “it continues to expect its core pharmaceutical business to deliver double-digit earnings-per-share growth in 2003.” Given the new, new news, Merrill upgraded Merck to Neutral, “as we await the details of the financial outlook call including company EPS guidance and as we assess MRK's potential stock multiple.” Merck closed down 1.8%. In other Merrill happenings, chief U.S. strategist Richard Bernstein lowered the firm’s recommended equity allocation to 45% from 50%. Mr. Bernstein still finds plenty of un-bottomlike speculation in the market. Here are his 8 indications of today's speculative market: 1. Equities are generally considered the “asset class of choice”. 2. Investors seem to be ignoring the “unpredictability of earnings”. 3. Lower quality still sells at significant premium valuations to higher quality. 4. High Beta stocks sell at higher relative valuations than during the bubble. 5. Investors generally ignoring geopolitics or assuming solely positive outcomes. 6. Continued Use of Pro-Forma and Operating EPS. 7. Momentum still a prime investment criteria, i.e. “The Market is telling you something.” 8. The “Greenspan Put” seems alive and well. Is there now a “Bush Put”, too? No argument here. AOL Time Warner fell 14% today after predicting that sales in its online division would not grow next year as the company rethinks its business. The company also forecast 2003 EBITDA for its America Online division to fall 15-25% from this year’s levels. Looking for growth The powerhouses of the US economy, housing and autos, have been losing power of late. Home prices rose just 0.84% in Q3 vs. a 2.39% in the prior quarter and a 1.94% increase in Q3, ’01. According to the USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup poll, however, only 6% of homeowners expect the value of their home to fall next year. However, 44% do expect a price increase of less than 10%. Moderating prices and higher rates would slow the refi game which is expected to be only half as active next year. The Mortgage Bankers Association guesses that homeowners will take out $751 billion to refi existing loans compared to an estimated $1.4 trillion this year and $1.2 trillion the year before. Fewer refis = fewer cash take outs = fewer new decks and SUVs. The auto bubble has stopped expanding as well, at least for now. GM's sales fell 18% in November and Ford’s fell 20%. Last year’s sales were a record for November. GM fell 5% and Ford 13% today. Ford said it will cut back production. Wal-Mart’s 14% year-over-year gain for the day after Thanksgiving has an asterisk. The figure compares total revenues and Wal-Mart opened almost 130 stores last year. The strength of retail sales remains an open question.