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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fedhead who wrote (18083)	12/3/2002 10:01:08 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 30712

Anindo - Look at the CFZ board. Enormously bearish. Stayed bearsih until 4 days ago. The biggest bears on SI. Started buying calls 3 days ago and bought calls yesterday and all day today. AFTER BEING SHORT UNTIL SEVERAL DAYS AGO. Is that bear capitulation? Do not ask me cause I do not know but it sure looks like it might be. M

To: fedhead who wrote (18083)	12/4/2002 12:11:30 AM
From: Jeff	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 30712

anindo.....i think after watching the retrace on this thread go from 1759 to 1108.....i think most folks here know by now that the "meat" of the next decline will start with a d-blow from some indicator.....<GGG> and i think now most will be cautious shorting into AV and know to get out when it first shows up and take some long money..... last year the crooks waited till the new year money came in before they pulled the plug in january.....that might happen again..... since the fed and fund guys decided to change the course of destiny by halting my beloved retrace early.....and since that retrace used to deliver rally tops on a silver platter to us to short off......well......like i said before....i have to make a new plan now......thats what i'm working on now.....trying to find this next top.... heres what i have so far..... i'm working off this pattern..... bull trend.....short hard downs...then higher highs... bear trend...fast ups with gaps....before more lower lows... now if you look at a chart of the big dump in feb-mar 01 or the dump this year from 1759 to 1192...... you notice the bear trend....trend down....but theres ups that last only 2-3 days before more down.....back this summer i used to call those ups " throwing the longs a bone".....getting them lathered again before they take their money with new lows..... now...if you look at the april and sept 01 ramps and this one.....the bull trend....the main pattern is 2-3 days hard down then higher highs......lets just say " throwing the shorts a bone" before they squeeze them again.....<ggg> since we are now in the bull trend.....thats all i care about now.....so i look to see how the other ones ended... first clue....you get more than 3 down days in a row....thats a clue the overall strength is weakening.....but theres a higher high coming....say a blow off top..... so at the early stage of my study....if we get more than 3 downs in a row off 1521 top....the bull trend has weakened but there will still be a blow off top over 1521..... and the t-q i want to see didn't show up till the ultimate tops....the tops that started the weakness with more than 3 downs in a row didn't have my t-q...... 1521 didn't have my t-q......so i believe a higher high will come because of that also..... as i make my new plan...i need a "canary".... for me its the golds..... XAU is under a full sto weekly d-blow.....the same type that toasted nasdaq from march to october.... XAU is in a big triangle.....the d-blow is young....it still has a chance to pull out..... the rule on a weekly d-blow....you can still have up days during the week within it....but the overall week should end down to keep the DB going..... looking at a daily XAU.....its in a downtrend....and today it had a gap up...and since the 71 top.....its doing that bear trend thing with fast ups or gaps for 2-3 days before more down or lower lows..... if XAU was in a bull trend....that weekly d-blow can be the first signs the young gold bull is dying... obviously...if gold is dead....the market could go for a big run into next year.... that d-blow is very important to watch..... and if XAU breaks up and out of that triangle and the d-blow fails.....a failed d-blow is a strong sign of a strong up move.....well.....obviously golds will run like a scalded dog next year as the market gets toasted again..... as of right now.....nasdaq is still within the 2-3 days down.....XAU is under the DB and still in the 2-3 days up of a bear trend.....and still no t-q i want..... so right now....theres nothing to get a read off.....but as each day passes.....that will change..... like i say....i don't trade much in december and when i do its just daytrade stuff because it sucks to be a bagholder the last few weeks in the year....<gg> if any of the guidelines in my new plan change i'll post it....