Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (15218)	12/3/2002 11:19:15 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

I think we see new lows. I think it will take a lot of years to cleanse our financial market of its excesses to where we have an unfettered bull. However, I think there will be good bull market periods interspersed with ugly bear market periods during this cleansing period. One of the main things that I think is important is that I don't think we are going to see an opportunity for lowly pukes, like you and I, to get rich on employee stock options. I honestly believe that was a once in a lifetime opportunity. Maybe there will be opportunities to feather the bed a little with options...if you catch the cycle right, but I am not counting on another homerun. One of the things that convinces me that the bear isn't over is that I know many people up in SV who are still in the mania mode. They are absolutely convinced that they are going to get hit by lightning twice.

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (15218)	12/4/2002 3:02:37 AM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57110

multiples need to contract throughout the secular bear Well like many things it depends upon your definition of secular bear. If your definition is the price (and valuation) plunge from a mania peak to the low P/E in the 7 to 10 range, then yes multiples contract. However, if your definition of a secular bear is the period from a mania peak to the start of the next secular bull, then the valuation plunge is merely the first part of the secular bear. I believe you'll find that 15+ year secular bear markets fall under the second definition. Consider zealllc.com Note that in the Great Depression, valuations never got as low again as they were in '32. In the '66 to '82 bear, the plunge carried valuations to a low in '74. I'm convinced that the only reason that valuations slid to an even lower low in the '77 to '82 period, is because of the economic devastation caused by the double digit inflation of that period. And even then the '77 to '82 slide was mild compared to the valuation plunge from '66 to '74. While I believe that our valuation plunge will be over in '08, for good demographic reasons, I suspect that the next secular bull won't begin until a full decade later. That in no way means that technological innovation will cease. I recall building my first CPM micro computer in a friend's garage in the '70s in the teeth of the last secular bear. lurqer