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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KLP who wrote (59819)	12/4/2002 3:16:09 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi KLP; Re: "Is there a way you can tell the rest of us how you are able to find all the replies so seemingly easily.....or do you go through the thread, post by post..... Somehow, I don't think that is what you do..... LOL (as you say!)" There's two parts. First, when someone (from SI or elsewhere) makes a prediction, I bookmark the post by putting it into the "Favorites" category. The category is organized by the predicted date of the event. For example, here is a list of posts predicting war with Iraq in December 2002, in order of when in December the predictions are for (maybe just "December"): #reply-18059858 #reply-18254090 #reply-18235392 #reply-18214941 #reply-18231795 #reply-18118556 #reply-17970622 #reply-17888085 #reply-18076263 #reply-18060682 #reply-17958363 #reply-17939964 #reply-18228535 #reply-18238361 You can do the same sort of schedule with individual dates of other significance. For example, here is a link to a prediction for the Israeli elections of January 28, 2003: #reply-18254021 It is normal human behavior to make predictions but then conveniently forget all about them when their due date arrives, unless the prediction was accurate, in which case a big deal is made out of it. (I don't pretend to be inhuman in this, LOL.) But as any engineer knows, the way that you improve a process is by constantly comparing the results of that process with what is desired. If the process that is to be improved is "prediction of the future", then it is necessary to constantly review past predictions for their accuracy. One of my observations on predictions is that people tend to predict things that are more interesting than what reality actually provides. Perhaps this is because the motivation to predict only rises up when someone thinks that something amazing is going to happen. Or perhaps a prediction that the sun will rise tomorrow morning isn't considered significant enough to care about. And as far as finding old posts, late at night the search facility on SI works better. But it has a lot of odd quirks, so it's best to try several different search criteria when you're looking for something. For example, searching for KLP and quagmire gives posts back to February 17, 2002 with those two words: siliconinvestor.com By the way, I always sign my posts "-- Carl", so my posts are easy to search for. If I have failed predictions you can easily find them, LOL. Here's all the posts on SI that have "carl" and "predicts" (only some of which are mine, of course) since December 24, 2001 (that date will advance as the buffer expands): siliconinvestor.com -- Carl