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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (15316)	12/4/2002 5:12:31 PM
From: Steve Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

"In the meantime we could have a sharp rally to 2000 on the naz that wipes all the bears out and a resulting decline to 700 that kills the bulls." Lizzie that's a good point. At the end of last summer I had a lot of shorts and options. I watched my portfolio go down into early 2001 and will admit I was "lucky" in that WEBX had a massive decline just before the puts were to expire. I had already mentally booked a massive loss and was reviewing my strategy. I realised the same thing you did about being "right" in the long term but losing money. Of course longs can hold and hope while shorts get squeezed and are forced to cover. I prefer puts to shorts for this reason but they still expire and many of mine expired worthless. The output of the exercise was to trade more. So I have long term investments that are mainly shorts. These conform to my long term economic/market expectation. Then I trade around them. If someone wants to hold stocks thru a down period then that is up to themk and may work out with a long term view, fine. I don't know what all the arguments are about here. As bruceleroy says, the thread header and first post lead people to think this is a trading thread wrt TA on indices, so attracts a diversity of views. JT has recently brought up the idea of changing the thread title and that will help this misunderstanding. I think you are wrong on the permabears. Velo and Jeff and many others of us who frequent those threads are bullish from time to time. We have been bearish recently and that has made us a lot of money. Go back to 1999 (and 2000 also for I was late turning bearish), and you will see me playing the bubble stocks with no earnings, making doubles triples and quadruples in PoS stocks like VLNC using calls and shares, and making good in RMBS calls. The discussions and trades with mistakes and all are on Steve's channelling thread on SI, all recorded, wins and losses alike. I did well with LTBH of INTC, I made an absolute fortune with RMBS calls specifically - based on research of fundamentals, and have also benefitted from the property bubble, which I mainly sold out of too soon last year. Now I am doing well with shorting. I have made mistakes such as buying SSTI and SNDK long early on in this bear, and holding lots of puts in late 2001. So there are successes and failures in investing but the key for me has been to learn and adapt. I just don't see why being a bear in a bear market should subject someone to ridicule.