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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: paul_philp who wrote (59879)	12/4/2002 5:24:21 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi paul_philp; The people who predicted war in December aren't strawmen. They're predictors who now appear to have missed. December is the biggest pile of predictions. Yours for January has been noted, but you don't have nearly as much company. Part of the reason for the big pile is that early in the year, it was convenient to predict that there would be "war in 2002", which translates to December 31, 2002. The people who made these predictions were probably thinking that war would start in October or November, and are now somewhat disappointed. Here's the schedule for January: 01/01/03 Jeffrey Goldberg #reply-18238361 01/02/03 kumar_rangan #reply-18247829 ("post holiday") 01/08/03 Talibani #reply-18098178 01/15/03 paul_philp #reply-18283883 The next bit of (non) war news will be the failure of the US to ask for Iraq to be declared in violation when the Iraqis turn in their documents Saturday. (This follows the failure of the US to ask that Iraq be declared in material breach for shooting at US planes.) I guess I could throw in that Ramadan will end in a few days and there are some people who've predicted a war to start a few days after that, given that it was delayed for religious reasons. The next major one after that will be when the George Washington fails to stay on station (and thereby running up the total number of carriers in the region) around December 20th or so. The Lincoln will come home in late January. Re: "This idea you have of the ever delayed war is your construction not mine." I never meant to say that it was your construction. As far as I know, you've never said anything other than that a war would probably start in mid January. My comment was not posted to you personally, but was instead posted for general interest regarding Douglas Hamilton's article, which you happened to link in. As far as the "delayed war with Iraq" being my construction, well, I've long posted that it wasn't going to happen, but the fact is that many people have commented that the war is, in fact, delayed. Here's some examples: THE SECOND GULF WAR: DELAYED BUT NOT CANCELLED mmorning.com U.S. plans for Iraq may be delayed krem.com Israel concludes war with Iraq is no longer imminent Defense Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer said he did not believe the U.S. war against would take place for another several months. He indicated that this was a change in U.S. plans. 216.26.163.62 Patriots analysis: Apparently, an invasion of Iraq has been delayed along with the UN vote. Bush is allowing action against the Iraqi dictatorship to be delayed indefinitely by the opposition of France and Russia. defenseofamerica.org Israeli officials have indicated that they expect an American invasion of Iraq sometime in early 2003. Officials had earlier anticipated an American attack after November 1. The new expectation is said to reflect a change in administration policy, as President Bush seeks a broader coalition and UN Securty Council cooperation. I don't buy it. I think the shooting war will start by Christmas at the latest, and probably much sooner than that. I have no hard reasons, though there are all sorts of indications - including the recent restationing of B-2 bombers to Diego Garcia. I think the Israeli announcement is American disinformation that will work reasonably well, contributing to the general sense that the US is softening its position and is preparted to wait longer for Iraqi compliance and UN support. maderblog.com Also see: google.com -- Carl