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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pyslent who wrote (125834)	12/5/2002 11:33:36 AM
From: H. Bradley Toland, Jr.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

I'm not sure what Qualcomm will make per new subscriber going forward. BREW and acceptance of new, higher priced phones, and ready acceptance of 4th, 5th generational changes all are monkey wrenches you have to throw into the equation. Having said that, our hunch is that there will be close to one billion subscribers in 5 to 7 years--closer to 5 yrs if the 300 million European subscribers get off the dime. If the Q keeps technological lead, maybe their free cash flow, which is around 1.3 billion next 12 months, grows to 6 to 10 billion. Hope 10 but I think 6 billion is not unrealistic. If you apply a multiple commenserate to growth rate, 30%, or 30 times that number, the Q could increase 6 fold in value from the 30 times current cash flow number that they are currently trading. Crude I know, but I'm not sure how else to predict out that far. The one thing I'm certain of, patents are not going to be a problem. Never have been, never will--over the near term, 7 years. regards, bt