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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (59890)	12/4/2002 6:24:40 PM
From: paul_philp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

P.S. Is what you mean that when January 16th rolls around and no war, you're going to not slip, and instead will be predicting no war at all? No. There are other possible outcomes that I consider possible but less likely. However, if Jan. 16 rolls by and there has been no action against Iraq, no change in status for Iraq at the UN, no leadership change in Iraq, and no visible US military buildup in the Gulf; then I would consider an attack on Iraq in 2003 unlikely. I would want to hear Bush's explanation and view of the future in that scenario. I think he would be politically wounded (enough to generate a 'right wing' candidate for the Republican nomination) if that scenario came to pass. Paul