To: FaultLine who wrote (59907 ) 12/4/2002 8:44:15 PM From: Bilow Respond to Hi FaultLine; I should have looked through those hits for "Carl predicts". I went back through the ones up to the beginning of the fall, and I do have some misses, as well as some hits I'd forgotten about:Re Pakistan and India... I don't think they really have "daggers drawn". The civil war in East Pakistan / Bangladesh, which preceded the '71 war, was far more bloody than anything going on now. I think they're just putting on a bit of a show for the home crowds. It's the kind of back-seat squabbling that siblings pull on each other. They know that there's a level that they have to stay below, because if they let it get too loud, the US will step in and beat the crap out of whoever seems to be winning, so why get in a war? I predict that 4 years from now Pakistan / India relations will be far better than anyone now would be rational to predict. They'll be mostly arguing about who has the better soccer team. #reply-16851063I've been expecting DRAM prices to remain depressed through 2002, with at least 2 of the major producers getting out of the business. It looks like the two major producers will be Hynix and Toshiba. Maybe Elpida too. #reply-16874161 [The above was okay, as far as prices go in that DRAM is still quite cheap, but surprisingly, Hynix is still in business. DRAM prices: ]priceindexes.com So I'll go out on a limb and predict that Vanguard Group will be show to have been the seller. #reply-17149781After the Israelis have given every Palestinian who is willing to die for Palestine the opportunity to do this, then they will have peace. Current Israeli actions are making negative progress towards this goal. Their kill rate against the Palestinians is a tiny fraction of the natural population increase rate. ... Uncivilized societies are typically willing to accept much higher carnage than civilized ones. Add in the religious and ethnic differences and its easy to predict that the Palestinians will require a lot more kills than the Germans needed. This conflict could run up death tolls in the millions before it is over. For the short term, it's possible that the Israelis will reduce the number of suicide bombers by occupying the West Bank. Without occupation, they would have to deal with mortars and missiles. With occupation there will still be Palestinian resistance, but at least more of it will be directed at Israeli soldiers instead of civilians. And as soon as they retreat the "without occupation" problems will return. Over time, the Palestinians will become more effective guerilla fighters. Armies of occupation are not a good idea. Ethnic cleansing might work temporarily, but would be bad for US opinion. The US has a problem with terrorism and Israel is in our way. #reply-17287506Hi all; I predict the PS/3 to use embedded DRAM. #reply-17481450 [still unknown]I predict that RMBS will be under $1 within 18 months. #reply-17815367 [Still have 12 months to go.]With the world's only superpower appearing to be out of control, it's easy to predict that the smaller nations are going to try to solve their national security problems with nuclear weapons. #reply-17856289 [Since then, North Korea has bragged about nukes.]One day the Arab countries will be united, I predict, but it will be in peace (like Europe), and it won't be for many decades. The problem is these people are some of the least religiously tolerant on the face of the planet, and they can't agree amongst themselves. #reply-17866095
