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To: augieboo who wrote (60880)12/5/2002 9:13:47 AM
From: The Freep  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
<< It all means N-O-T-H-I-N-G>>

Yo, Aug. You and the dog need to take a long walk in some beautiful location and calm down :-)

FWIW, there are many folks around who do not appear to have connections to the "powers that move markets" yet have called this rally well all the way up. So clearly, the charts/sentiment reads mean S-O-M-E-T-H-I-N-G to them. It strikes me that whatever set of indicators/charts/stuff that you'd been using have failed you lately, leading to frustration. Been there myself a few times. It simply means there's more to learn, changes to be made, new systems to be developed that work in different types of markets. Clearly, if there were simply one set of TA/FA magic bullets, we'd all be rich. Sadly, it ain't so.

As for the comment that set you off re: everyone looking for another high and that being bothersome. . . . I've been on stock boards for 6 years or so. One can use them for sentiment readings in the broadest terms. I have found time and again that when mass agreement exists on what will happen, the market will usually confound in some way or another.

For example, in the current situation. . . I am also looking for some up (into Dec 23rd +/- 2 trading days for me), but the increasing agreement with that position makes me play things differently than I might otherwise. It also leads me to think we might get more down first so the ramp starts from lower. Or we might get weeks of difficult to trade choppy up instead of the strong rally I was expecting at some point into that turn. So in other words, it still is my primary idea, but the fact that everyone shares it does put me on alert. (But as you say, I read a lot of very smart people, so we could all be right. But I also know that these smart people will also trade so as not to be married to the idea -- it ain't set in stone).

Anyway, the one thing I do know is that criticizing someone's reasoning about what worries them (something they have probably observed over time) while in the same post saying that NO ONE can POSSIBLY understand the market strikes me ill-advised. But sometimes it just feels great to vent frustration, and better here then on augieboo!

respectfully,

the freep



To: augieboo who wrote (60880)12/5/2002 9:16:54 AM
From: bcrafty  Respond to of 209892
 
"if you think you have ANY "visibility" ...beyond 1-3 days from now, you are living in a fantasy land"

Amen, brother. Look what happened to our SPX H&S a couple weeks back. And who knows how soon we'll get another dose of "encouraging" economic data leading to a +200 point Dow day like last week?

And although Allan was intentionally overstating his point a couple of weeks ago, he might have been prescient when he said that "E-Wave is dead." If one goes to the Public Charts section at stockcharts.com one will find as many different possible scenarios as there are chartists there. But, of course, even if there was any hint of a consensus, at the speed of light a contrarian would run to this board and say "EVERYBODY is seeing such and such in the charts, therefore we're not going to get that scenario."
stockcharts.com

Sticking to intraday trading and forgetting about any overnighting and gaps is presently the way to go, IMO.



To: augieboo who wrote (60880)12/5/2002 9:37:20 AM
From: byhiselo  Respond to of 209892
 
<<you are living in a fantasy land, or you've been taking too many hits off the old glue bong.>>

i hear ya, man

now that you just blew my high, i need another hit
btw, gfy g

cheers



To: augieboo who wrote (60880)12/5/2002 9:45:44 AM
From: JRI  Respond to of 209892
 
<Reason it goes up> Did you hear IBMs announcement today...apparently because of the gains over last 2 months, IBM has largely erased a pension short-fall that was about to cause a huge earnings problem for 2003..hmm...



To: augieboo who wrote (60880)12/5/2002 10:44:23 AM
From: Shack  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 209892
 
Augie, what is wrong with you? You're attacking a poster because he dares to try and make some calls and trade in this "manipulated" market? Your post is utter nonsense and doesn't belong on a trading thread. It also smacks of frustration but I am not going to speculate.

Freep has articulated my thoughts better than I can at 7 am. Suffice to say, please post only when you think you can contribute to the trading of this market rather than the condemnation of it.