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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (25911)	12/5/2002 8:16:23 PM
From: getanewlife	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay, you have some puts on the miners and may you share your rationale please. Best wishes, gf

To: TobagoJack who wrote (25911)	12/5/2002 9:25:49 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 74559

I had a bluepoint siamese cat once, named her Ming / jw

To: TobagoJack who wrote (25911)	12/6/2002 4:49:38 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Australians and NZ currencies have had their day in the sun Party may be ending for dollar-bloc currencies By Jennifer Hughes in London Published: December 5 2002 4:00 \| Last Updated: December 5 2002 4:00 Australians and New Zealanders may be enjoying the summer heat but it looks as though their currencies have had their day in the sun. Interest rate rises early this year among dollar-bloc currencies such as theirs, which are dependent on commodities, were rewarded by investors eager for higher yields and keen to believe in global economic recovery. New Zealand led the way, raising rates by a full percentage point to 5.75 per cent in the five months to July, while Australia raised rates in two quarter-point moves to 4.75 per cent by June. Canada joined the party with three quarter-point rises in its official rate to 2.75 per cent by July. The Kiwi, as the NZ dollar is known, has gained more than 16 per cent this year while the Aussie is up nearly 9 per cent. The Loonie, the nickname of the Canadian dollar, has had more of a rollercoaster ride. After gains of more than 5 per cent, it is about 2.5 per cent higher on the year. "Investors have been flocking in for the yield play," said Tim Mazanec, senior currencies strategist at Investors Bank and Trust. "But all these banks are clearly are on hold at the moment and maybe the best days for the Aussie and the Kiwi are behind them." Recovery hopes have clearly turned cold, and that is where the party could end, say analysts. All three economies are highly exposed to cyclical developments and tend to pick up quickly at the beginning of a recovery, so growth hopes in the first months of 2002 helped send the currencies sharply higher. Conversely, a slowdown in global growth would trim demand for their natural resources, weighing on economic performance. The dangers posed by weak global performance were highlighted by the Bank of Canada's decision this week to leave interest rates on hold and emphasise the geopolitical risks to domestic growth in its accompanying statement. Australia's Reserve Bank also kept rates on hold when it met on Wednesday. "I think we'll see a range here for the currencies," said Rob Carnell, senior international economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "We might see more gains if US equities start weakening once more but we're not likely to see the surge out of equities needed to see [currency] gains." The Canadian dollar looks like the weakest of the three, said Mr Carnell. While the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has trimmed its fierce inflation-fighting stance with the appointment of Alan Bollard to replace the hawkish Don Brash, both it and the RBA look likely to hold rates steady for some time, supporting the currencies with an attractive yield, particularly compared with the US, analysts are less sure about the Bank of Canada. "You can't rule out a possible rate cut as the next move from the BoC, even if if doesn't look the most likely option at the moment," said Mr Carnell, who highlighted Canada's exposure to its large southern neighbour. With equities struggling to extend recent gains and investors continuing to look for better returns elsewhere, a rate cut could be very bad news for the Loonie.