~OT~....Respected Kerry could run strong race in 2004
By MARIANNE MEANS
SYNDICATED COLUMNIST
Friday, December 6, 2002
WASHINGTON -- One school of political thought holds that the 2004 Democratic nomination isn't worth having because President Bush is riding high in the polls, a reflection of widespread voter trust in his handling of national security issues.
Fortunately, that pessimistic theory has not scared away Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, who has just formed a fund-raising exploratory committee to campaign for the White House.
Former Vice President Al Gore remains the front-runner for the nomination, although he hasn't yet said he wants it. If he does, Gore will have to overcome the intraparty criticism of his 2000 campaign and fight for the right to run again.
Of the potential Democratic alternatives, Kerry is the guy who likely would give him the stiffest challenge.
Some might be tempted at this early stage to underestimate Kerry, who at almost 59 has never run a nationwide campaign and is not well-known beyond the political world and his home state.
Since his election to the Senate in 1984, Kerry has been overshadowed on the world stage by the enormous political bulk of Massachusetts' senior senator, Edward Kennedy.
But the reason we hold campaigns is to look candidates over, adjust our simplistic stereotypes and hear what the contenders have to say. And Kerry has much of what it takes: keen intelligence, a way with words, broad political experience, money, the respect of his peers, a heroic war record and the look of eagles.
His voting record is as liberal as Kennedy's. They represent, after all, the same local constituency. But Kerry also has worked on legislation with reform-minded Republicans, particularly his buddy, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, a fellow Vietnam veteran.
Republicans are already planning to brand Kerry as the tall Michael Dukakis, a reference to the short Massachusetts governor who was the 1988 Democratic nominee trounced by President George H.W. Bush. Kerry, however, is made of sterner stuff than the hapless Dukakis -- more like a lion than a sacrificial lamb.
Kerry has never hidden his ambition to become president. Just re-elected to his fourth Senate term, he feels the timing is right for his move, despite the difficulty of tackling an entrenched incumbent.
With his war record -- three Purple Hearts and Bronze and Silver Stars -- he is one of the few Democrats who can credibly attack George W. Bush on national-security issues.
Anyway, there's no guarantee that Bush will still be popular in two years. If the economy flops and a horrifying war grinds on inconclusively, he could be as vulnerable as his father was in 1992.
As the campaign season began in 1991, the elder Bush was basking in the popular glow of the brief, virtually bloodless Persian Gulf War. He looked invincible, and the most promising Democratic prospects -- including Gore, New York Gov. Mario Cuomo, Sens. Bill Bradley of New Jersey, Sam Nunn of Georgia and Lloyd Bentsen of Texas, as well as House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt -- declined to run.
That left a small, second-tier Democratic field, including an unknown, untested and presumably unelectable Arkansas governor, Bill Clinton. Then the economy tanked, Bush got the blame and Clinton won.
It could happen again. In politics, two years is an eternity.
Kerry is already one of W's sharpest critics on the war in Afghanistan, contending that U.S. military mistakes allowed Osama bin Laden to get away and his terrorist network, al-Qaida, to disperse. Kerry was quick to demand that former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger sever his ties to the mysterious, unidentified multinational corporate clients of his consulting company in order to function independently as chairman of a commission investigating the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. Kissinger later promised to avoid potential conflicts of interest.
Kerry has complained that the Bush administration is not pressing the Saudis sufficiently for more help in the war on terror. He has lectured Bush on the importance of obtaining support from the United Nations and international allies when waging war.
Kerry is just as combative on domestic issues, rejecting the me-too instincts of less venturesome Democrats. He differs sharply with Bush on taxes, education and Social Security.
"I want this to be a contest of ideas," Kerry says, and indeed he has a reputation as a knowledgeable policy wonk. He loves policy details and has a firm grasp of the English language, traits that are demonstrably not Bush's strong suits.
But Bush has plenty of a specific winning quality that Kerry doesn't seem to have enough of -- a warm personality. Kerry, the son of a U.S. diplomat and a member of the wealthy Forbes family, often comes across as remote and chilly. That might stem from the fact that with an erect military bearing and a height of 6 feet 4 inches, he habitually looks down his aristocratic nose at practically everybody.
Having a low political thermostat is not helpful, but not necessarily fatal in politics. We are most comfortable when we like our leaders, but it is crucial that we respect them. It is Kerry's task to make the country respect him, and what we know of him thus far suggests he can do that.
He is sounding a theme of change. "On almost every issue facing the country, I think there's a better choice for this nation (than the administration's policies)," he says. In this, he echoes John F. Kennedy's campaign slogan of getting the country moving again. Kennedy was also initially seen as distant and cerebral. But as the 1960 campaign warmed up, so did he. And so might Kerry.
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Marianne Means is Washington, D.C., columnist with Hearst Newspapers. Copyright 2002 Hearst Newspapers.
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