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To: Victor Lazlo who wrote (150611)	12/7/2002 12:43:50 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

I agree a 20% correction or whatever you call it looks likely... I didn't think that meant it was a bear market, guess its just a semantic issue. I was thinking bear mkts had to be a string of 20% declines or something like that... on the downside with rallies in between. Since we are only 300 pts up from the low it doesn't allow for anymore than one. Well whatever, even on the Rukeyser show last night some were saying the short term mkt was overbought. I was thinking mostly iraq was the bad news now. Housing is overbought for sure but maybe the commercial RE can pick up a little if residential declines to balance things out. As far as who is predicting the new lows on naz, just read the trading threads on SI! Actually a lot of technicians saying it along with Cliggot and the permabears. Reading those threads you'd think these predictions were the majority... I don't know if they are or not. I think it is based on valuation at trough levels from the 70s or 30s bear. Of course they don't mention the huge differences between those periods and today. Also I am particularly interested in cash levels, I think they are significantly higher than the 70s due to options exercise payins, bubble easy money and no incentive for divs- the cash levels are propping up stocks and the next thing you know, P/Es on indices look sky high. Lizzie