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To: Les H who wrote (3827)12/7/2002 1:52:42 PM
From: Return to Sender  Respond to of 29606
 
Weekend Market Analysis - Click link to see charts

amateur-investors.com

(12/7/02)

It shouldn't have been too much of a surprise to anyone that the major averages pulled back this week after rallying the previous eight weeks as I had mentioned to be aware of in last Weekend's Market Analysis.

The Dow which briefly got above its 200 Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on Monday began to sell off but did manage to bounce off of its 50 Day EMA (blue line) on Friday near 8500. If a bounce develops in the Dow next week look for resistance near its 200 Day EMA (green line) near 8930. Meanwhile if the Dow doesn't bounce and fails to hold support near its 50 Day EMA around 8500 the next key area of support to watch for would be near 8400 (point A) which is the 38.2% retracement from the intra day October 10th low to the December 2nd intra day high.

The Nasdaq also rose above its 200 Day EMA on Monday but then began to sell off thereafter. However the Nasdaq did reverse well on Friday. If the Nasdaq undergoes a bounce next week look for resistance near its 200 Day EMA around 1490. Meanwhile if the Nasdaq fails to bounce and heads lower look for support near its 50 Day EMA (blue line) around 1370 range. Furthermore the 38.2% retracement from the October 10th intra day low to the December 2nd intra day high is around 1365 so the 1365-1370 range is a critical support area for the Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 also pulled back this week and eventually bounced off its 50 Day EMA (blue line) on Friday near 900. If the S&P 500 undergoes a bounce next week I would look for resistance around 940. Meanwhile if the S&P 500 doesn't bounce and fails to hold support near its 50 Day EMA around 900 the next significant support level to watch is around 880 (point B) which is the 38.2% retracement from the October 10th intra day low to the December 2nd intra day high.

The question still remains will we see a similar pattern develop like occurred in the Fall and Winter of 1998 when the major averages formed Double Bottom patterns and then consolidated for three weeks before rallying going into the end of the year?

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 back in the Fall and Winter of 1998 shows that after it formed a Double Bottom pattern (looks like the letter "W") it then consolidated for three weeks while developing a Handle before breaking out in the middle part of December (point A).



Right now you should be playing close attention to those stocks which held up well this past week despite the weakness in the major averages and are exhibiting favorable chart patterns such as the "Cup and Handle", "Double Bottom" and "Flat Base". If another strong push upward develops before the end of the year these will be the stocks to focus on.



To: Les H who wrote (3827)12/7/2002 5:46:24 PM
From: Les H  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29606
 
Inflation update

economics.sbs.ohio-state.edu