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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (10114)	12/8/2002 11:46:57 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

nicely put, TinMan... 1930 versus 1980 challenged with the former Lindsey-ONeill team, I would have deemed the likelihood of 1930 outcome at 50% with the unnamed Econ team, but a clear indication of monetizing its way to the centerline of traffic, I would guess the likelihood of 1930 outcome is at 30% I still prefer my summary of muddling along (ala Mauldin) with the best case scenario being MOTHER OF ALL STAGFLATIONS comparison to 1980 is interesting we have about 4 times as much money in the supply (MZM) we have about 130% more federal debt, a guess we have about 70% more household debt, a guess we have about 400% greater trade gap we have about 1/3-rd as much gold as Trez debt collateral we have foreigners owning about 180% more of the Trez debt, a guess we have the USGovt using many more playbooks so the Stagflation will be an order of magnitude greater why do so many intelligent people miss this? I had another interesting conversation in the sports club hottub this time was not with a notable from Corporate Land it was a bright frustrated guy from the soda business he said the summer-autumn season was dreadful for this highly seasonal business he said the winter- early spring season is typically awful he expects big trouble ahead he said he knows several dozen people whose jobs are in danger he said he knows several dozen other people from his community who are on the edge financially in the middle class he said he thinks a large slice of them just wont get thru this if the economy slides more we talked about several things, but he latched onto the difficult topic of gold subsidizing the Trez bonds all thru the 1990 decade he didnt quite follow it until I gave it the 3-minute drawn out argument he finally "got it" when I said the subsidized bond market allowed for interest rates to drop so much in a long trend that corporations had reduced costs, and with the extra money created jobs and expanded bingo, he got it he was eager to go out and find gold info in the press I laughed, and said you wont find a single word why? he asked I said because of the advertiser revenues of press/media he nodded, he got it more interesting was his daughters one really cute one at 14 yrs old (oy oy oy) / jim