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To: Return to Sender who wrote (3848)12/8/2002 11:52:36 AM
From: pallmer  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29597
 
-- WRAPUP 4-Weak jobs report raises concern on U.S. economy --

(Updates with market close; adds consumer credit data, Fed
poll)
By Tim Ahmann
WASHINGTON, Dec 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. unemployment rate
unexpectedly soared to 6 percent in November, revisiting an
eight-year high hit in April in a troubling sign for the
economy.
In a surprisingly weak jobs report on Friday, the Labor
Department also said employers hacked their payrolls last month
by the largest amount since February.
"This report suggests the U.S. economy is deteriorating,"
Moody's Investors Service top economist John Lonski said.
The downbeat data, coupled with the sudden resignations of
U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill and top White House
economic aide Lawrence Lindsey, roiled financial markets which
had recently grown more hopeful about the economic outlook.
U.S. stock markets opened sharply lower but closed in
positive territory as investors viewed the Bush team shake-up
as boosting the odds for a large fiscal stimulus package. The
Dow Jones industrial average closed up 22 points at 8645, while
the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 11 points to 1422.
At the same time, the Treasury market rallied on belief the
Federal Reserve would hold interest rates low for longer than
had been expected, if not cut them further.
The report showed a three-tenths of a percentage point jump
in the November jobless rate to 6.0 percent, its highest level
since April. The increase easily outstripped economists'
expectations for a gain to only 5.8 percent.
At the same time, the number of workers on U.S. payrolls
outside the farm sector tumbled by 40,000 last month, a
worrisome showing compared to an expected gain of 38,000.
"These numbers are a complete shock and give the impression
of an economy toppling over again," said Ram Bhagavatula, chief
economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Financial Markets.
Before April, the last time the jobless rate had been this
high was in August 1994, more than eight years ago.
Labor Secretary Elaine Chao said the report did not fit
well with other signs suggesting the economy was improving.
"It's all over the ballpark," Chao told cable network CNBC.
"The economy is out of its doldrums but as to where it's going
over the next few months, it's still a little questionable."
Democrats seized on the disappointing jobs figures to pound
Republicans for a failure to extend aid to jobless workers who
will soon drop off the benefit rolls. The report also bolstered
arguments from Republicans that tax cuts are needed to make
sure the wobbly recovery does not fall off the rails.
A separate report from the Fed on consumer credit suggested
shoppers were turning more cautious as the holiday shopping
season approached.
The Fed said consumer credit outstanding rose only $1.5
billion in October after gaining a revised $4.7 billion a month
earlier. October's rise fell well short of the $6.9 billion
increase expected on Wall Street. In addition, September's
figure was revised down sharply from an originally reported
$9.9 billion.

RATE DEBATE
The reports came just days before the Fed's next
policymaking meeting. The central bank cut short-term interest
rates a hefty half-percentage point last month to a fresh
four-decade low of 1.25 percent, saying the move should help
the economy through a "soft spot."
The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at its
meeting on Tuesday. But some economists said the jobs numbers
suggested the "soft spot" might be more of a quagmire than
hoped, raising the possibility further cuts in the benchmark
federal funds rate may be needed down the road.
A Reuters poll of 20 large Wall Street firms that deal
directly with the Fed in the markets found none looking for a
rate reduction next week. However, five of the firms expect at
least another quarter-point cut by mid-2003.
Former Fed governor Lyle Gramley said that while weak, the
jobs report was not weak enough to change the Fed's thinking.
"The Fed will be looking at other indicators suggesting
that some improvement may be taking place in economic growth
early next year and so it will be content to sit and wait ...
to see if that materializes," he said.
Two separate reports released on Friday -- one from the
Foundation for International Business and Economic Research and
the other from the Economic Cycle Research Institute -- showed
inflationary pressures receded in November.
Low inflation has given the Fed ample room to aggressively
cut rates in the battle against economic weakness. In fact,
some policymakers have worried that a prolonged period of
economic slack could lead to a downward drift in inflation that
could sap some of the stimulus rate cuts have been providing.

SOME POSITIVES
In one positive sign, Labor revised up the payrolls figures
for October and September. October's count was updated to show
a 6,000 rise compared to the previously reported 5,000 drop. In
September, jobs fell by 4,000 -- milder than the 13,000 decline
reported previously.
In addition, the department revised up its reading on the
length of the average workweek in October, which coupled with
the payroll revision to show the economy was working a bit
harder than first thought when the third quarter started.
However, the job market in November showed little vitality,
with the average workweek holding steady at 34.2 hours.
The downtrodden manufacturing sector shed 45,000 jobs last
month. Manufacturers have been cutting payrolls for nearly
2-1/2 years.
In an indication businesses were remaining cautious in the
run-up to the Christmas holiday shopping season, retail jobs
sank 39,000.
((Washington newsroom, 202-898-8433, fax 202-898-8383))
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nN06335164
US/JOBS1

06-Dec-2002 22:43:39 GMT
Source RTRS - Reuters News
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