Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (15585)	12/9/2002 5:47:26 PM
From: kollmhn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206395

CIBC is not exactly the cat's meow on E&P analysis, After all, they said ABP was going to be a $4 stock when you and I knew it was going broke. Aside from that, the ATPG story is intriguing up to a point. First off, it is said that they are at only 1.5 times CF (at $4.10?) yet, their recent (11/21)presentation chart showed 9 month 02 CF of $30mm. In order for 1.5X to work we need for CF to wind up 02 at $55mm. How will they get $25mm in just this quarter? (Probably a dumb question on my part?). Secondly, I see rather modest production increases, i.e., 2000-24.4Bcf; 2001-25.7Bcf and 2002 estimated at 26.5. Now, I know that they are excited about Helvellyn coming on next quarter and that concervative estimates are for their half share to be 15mmcfpd. That works out to 5.5bcf per year. and, as they pointed out, would be a 20% bump in production over 2002. However, I'm concerned about their existing production which is still lower that the 1Q02 level and about their estimate that 4Q02 will only be 5.1Bcf. If the 4Q is the new run rate (20.4)then 2003 prod. will actually will be shrinking even with Helvellyn, until such time as they get another property on line. Their capex cut back this year may have reduced debt but production shows the price. You are right, IMO, to suggest that the stock may need to pull back but, Im' not sure I see the screaming value that others do. Show me the light, 'cause I am probably missing some critcal considerations.