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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Challo Jeregy who wrote (15761)	12/8/2002 1:35:52 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

I'm not very bullish here. To you guys I probably seem very bullish because I'm kindof a permabull, mostly because I'm a better long than short, thats the only reason. I certainly have had profitable shorts in the past but have been long since July now, no shorts at all. I picked what I thought was a good short candidate on fri (didn't buy) and of course it went UP. (ctxs) This is why I'm a bull and not a bear, all things being equal. I expect the mkt to have an upward bias for now- although we are in the midst of a correction and this iraq thing is out there. After jan I don't know about the naz. Everything I read says new lows, (other than Kudlow and Cramer)- although the bears think the CW is the bottom is in. The problem is the bearish sentiment on SI is really extreme. I can see it because I'm not a bear, I think it is transparent to the bears. One guy on this thread recently listed about 20 companies he expected to warn this q... one of them was PIXR- who just released the most successful DVD in history (monsters inc)... bears expect companies like this to warn... what can I say to that... Most of the stocks I buy as longs trade for slightly more than cash levels. During the july/oct lows the sentiment was that all of these would go bk. We would need to get to those sentiment levels again to take out the lows. That will require either deflation or a double dip. The double dip scenario pretty much required a dismal retail xmas season, which isn't happening (not saying its a great xmas but it is not dd material). That leaves deflation, still a possibility imo. If I do start shorting next year it will not be the same companies I am long now. I won't short ciena for example who is trading 1.x times cash. I would short the semi equips and maybe some retailers who have high valuations. Looking at the P/E of tech and ignoring the cash is not a good idea imo.