SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Sig who wrote (60619)12/8/2002 3:53:42 PM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 281500
 
A "Backgrounder" from Newsweek on the Mombasa situation. I love the name, "Mombasa." Reminds me of an opening line from some old Historical Novel. "We were 2 days steaming out of Mombasa when the Typhoon hit."

War On Terror: An Emerging Connection
Investigators say they?re tracing a trail of evidence from the Mombasa attacks to Osama bin Laden?s ancestral home
By Mark Hosenball
NEWSWEEK
Dec. 16 issue, Israeli investigators call it "looking for an address." One of their hottest priorities right now is to figure out where to direct a retaliatory strike for the dual Nov. 28 terrorist attacks, on an Israeli charter jet and an Israeli-owned hotel in the Kenyan city of Mombasa. The job has been frustrating, even with the help of not only Kenyan police but U.S. and Arab intelligence agencies. "Whenever we move, we hit a snag," says William Langat, the deputy police commissioner leading the investigation.


EVEN SO, A TRAIL is emerging, and U.S. officials say it seems to lead straight to Osama bin Laden's ancestral home, Yemen, by way of Kenya's anarchic neighbor, Somalia. The growing signs of a Yemeni connection add credence to a statement that was posted on the Internet shortly after the attacks, claiming responsibility in Al Qaeda's name. Intelligence sources have indicated to NEWSWEEK that computer experts have teased out at least partial proof that the message originated from a confirmed Qaeda source.
The evidence linking the Nov. 28 attacks to Yemen includes the remains of two SA-7 missiles. They were picked up near Mombasa's airport, where they had narrowly missed a Tel Aviv-bound Arkia jet with 271 people aboard. U.S. officials say the weapons? serial numbers were close to those of a similar missile that was fired at a U.S. plane last May in Saudi Arabia. Intelligence specialists believe all three missiles belonged to a batch of Soviet-made SAMs from the 1970s that apparently was stolen from a Yemeni government arsenal in the early ?90s. A senior U.S. official said it was a ?working theory? of investigators that the missiles came from Yemen, but there was no suspicion of Yemeni government involvement. Similar weapons are readily available on the ?gray market? in Yemen and elsewhere for prices as low as $500. SA-7s are less sophisticated and less accurate than other Soviet-era missiles, like the SA-14, -16 and -18, that are on sale at arms bazaars around the region for as little as $20,000.
Investigators say the attackers were likely supported by the Somali-based group Al-Itihaad al-Islamiya. The Islamist group, which used to operate terrorist-training camps inside Somalia, was linked to the conspirators who carried out the 1998 bombings of the U.S. embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam. Sources close to its former leaders claim that the group has disbanded, but security sources say it has gone underground. U.S. intelligence sources say Al-Itihaad can still muster a force of between 2,000 and 4,000 committed fighters. The known movements of its operatives between Somalia, Kenya and Yemen have reinforced the belief inside U.S. intelligence that the Nov. 28 attacks were probably the work of a Qaeda-Al-Itihaad partnership.

Somalis say the partnership continues. ?You cannot trust Al-Itihaad, because they?re members of Al Qaeda,? says Muhammad Kanyare Afrah, one of the 20 or so warlords who continue to struggle for dominance in Somalia. ?There?s no law in our country, so they can do their business.? The terrorist threat in Kenya persists as well. The managers of a Mombasa travel agency recently told authorities that a Yemeni had offered one of their salesclerks a bribe for the schedule of German flight crews running surveillance missions from Mombasa. The Germans quickly revised their itineraries.



To: Sig who wrote (60619)12/8/2002 4:04:23 PM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 281500
 
A LATE DISPATCH FROM THE GULF WAR

The battles you didn't see on your TV

By E.W. Chamberlain. Retired Army Col. E.W. Chamberlain is a Pentagon strategy consultant and was a mechanized infantry battalion commander in the Persian Gulf War

Published December 8, 2002
The Chicago Tribune

War, like fall, puts a smell in the air. I sniff, and I can ever so faintly pick up the odor of war. As I sniff again, memories of my war come flooding back and I reflect for perhaps the 10,000th time on how lucky we were. Lucky? you say. But we're the United States of America, the most technologically advanced nation in the world. What could luck possibly have to do with advanced warfare?

The answer is simple. Even with all the glitz and hype about technology and a few dramatic clips of missiles striking stationary targets in the open, warfare has stayed basically the same for the last century or so. We learned in Somalia yet again that people with small arms in an urban environment can quickly inflict significant casualties on our forces. We learned from Kosovo that airplanes are good at blowing up embassies and power grids but still appallingly bad at blowing up tanks, despite kill claims that turned out to be 97 percent incorrect. Warfare between nations still is about meeting and killing armies on the ground, and technology only goes so far in determining the outcomes.

I commanded a mechanized infantry battalion in the gulf war, and I'm living proof that we were extremely lucky. My battalion (which actually was a task force, because we had a company of tanks, a company of heavy engineers and other arms and attachments that doubled the size of the unit) led the far western arm of the famous Schwarzkopf "Hail Mary" attack into the Euphrates River Valley. We attacked 350 miles into enemy territory with no viable intelligence and no flanks.

I'm living proof that we were lucky because we attacked a unit that was two or three times our size and won. That unit was the 3rd Special Forces Brigade, Saddam Hussein's premier fighting unit, the one that took down Kuwait City and one that had more than enough combat power to defeat us. So why didn't they?

I've heard some people postulate that the reason we won was because our equipment was better. As far as tanks went, that was true. The M1 Abrams tank is still the best tank in the world. The M2 Bradley Fighting Vehicle for our infantry is among the best in the world.

Iraqis were well-armed

Our M109 Howitzer is among the best for rapid fire but only reaches about 18 kilometers; the Iraqi guns could shoot 45 kilometers. (The Crusader Gun System would have resolved that artillery gap, but it has been canceled by people who have never been under artillery fire.)

The Iraqi AT-5 anti-tank missile was among the best in the world, and their small arms--they included the best the Soviet bloc had to offer as well as the best the West had to offer--were in some ways better than ours.

So it was not equipment that won the last gulf war. Gen. Barry McCaffrey said we could have used their equipment and they ours, and we still would have beaten them. He was right.

I've heard too many people say that our technology made the difference: We had Global Positioning Systems, satellite photos of Iraqi positions, perfect intelligence from signal intercepts, cruise missiles, smart bombs and many other minor modern miracles.

Now for the truth of all that.

I never saw a satellite photo of my objective area. You can take photos of only so many things, and the needs of a lowly infantry battalion were not even considered against the needs of staff planners, generals and media briefers.

We did have GPS, but satellite coverage in those days in that part of the world was good only for a few hours a day during the day. Unfortunately, it is infinitely easier to get lost in the dark. We overcame this problem with old-fashioned magnetic compasses, dead reckoning and paper maps.

Air power did not win war

My Air Force brothers ad nauseam claim that air power won the gulf war. I can categorically state that air power did not win the gulf war or any war since flying's inception in 1903. I never saw a cruise missile but did hear them going overhead--very impressive but no effect on the rascals I was fighting.

The same is true with the Air Force. I heard jets go overhead, but I never came across a single Iraqi combat vehicle, bunker, trench or soldier killed by air power.

I did see all of the above things killed by Apache helicopters and direct-fire weapons on the ground, and they damn sure made an impression on the Iraqis. (To be absolutely fair, I did see a hole in one highway overpass in the Euphrates Valley. It was a perfectly round hole and quite nice, but the overpass was still usable although reported as "destroyed" by the Air Force.)

My own personal experience of "close" air support was a 500-pound dumb bomb dropped from an F-16 flying at more than 23,000 feet. The pilot claimed he hit the target, about a kilometer away, but we were staring at it and saw nothing and heard nothing. When he asked whether we wanted another bomb, I graciously refused because we had absolutely no idea where the first bomb landed. The whole thing still raises the hair on the back of my neck.

The direct-fire fight on the ground was the key to the whole war. When the ground forces closed vigorously on the Iraqis with shock action and firepower, they surrendered in droves. They lost all will to fight.

I guess that's the end point of all wars: the fight on the ground. That's the decisive part, the hard part, the part where technology helps but does not decide the issue.

Good leaders, good soldiers and Marines, good equipment, good training and a good will to fight will make the difference.

We certainly had all of that in the last gulf war, and it was obvious that the other side did not. Napoleon said that the moral is to the physical as 10 is to one. So will, or "moral," is ever important, as we discovered to our national sorrow in the Vietnam War.

So what about will in this impending war?

So our will to fight this fellow is because he might have weapons of mass destruction? And that he is hiding them? And that he may use them against us or our allies?

He does have chemical weapons. We've known that for more than 20 years. (Of course, every nation with a fertilizer plant, chemical plant or even a chemistry set has the potential for chemical weapons.)

He might be developing nuclear weapons? (He and India, Pakistan, North Korea, Israel, France, China, Russia, Ukraine, England, the U.S., South Africa . . . ) Or there might be an as-yet-unidentified link to terrorists?

OK, the will thing remains a little fuzzy. We do know that we do not like Saddam Hussein and would rather he not be in power, but to remove him for that reason alone would be the act of a bully and hugely un-American.

No, we need a good and just cause because that's our way. It's not a question of can we beat these folks, but why are we beating these folks?

In my war, I could tell my troops we were fighting to free Kuwait from a dictator and to ensure the flow of oil to the world markets. I'm not sure what I could tell them today. I could say, "Well, because the president said so," which counts for something in the short term but begins to ring hollow when the body bags come in to Dover.

As an old soldier and like any soldier, I will "obey the lawful orders of those appointed over me," but I do much better with a cause. I need to feel that being away from my loved ones and my home and killing people I don't know has some higher moral reason to it.

Not liking Hussein is not enough.

I do smell war in the air. As I said, in our gulf war, we were lucky. We had a cause.

Copyright © 2002, Chicago Tribune

chicagotribune.com