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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: longdong_63 who wrote (23123)	12/9/2002 2:48:36 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Respond to of 36161

It's not just a question of undervalued/overvalued on the overall indexes. If Dubya passes more tax cuts that will lead to higher deficits which should help to weaken the Dollar even more. If passed it's certainly possible for ole yella and the markets to both move up in the near term. I'm about 1/2 gold and half RRI here. A rather aggressive position, but I think RRI represents a very compelling value here. Finally out of the SA golds on this latest DROOY bounce. I may regret it in time, but I'll sleep better at night. In terms of RRI Kyros has done some excellent research. Subject 53293 The main factors for me are: 1) The retail division acts like a hedge when prices are depressed. 2) They already refi'd in Oct on favorable terms. 3) The additional float from the CNP spinoff appears to be largerly absorbed (at least at these prices). 4) They have not been selling assets in spite of 2.7 bil loan coming due in Feb. Nor have they done a secondary. Says to me they are simply negociating terms. 5) Their EBIT to interest ratio is above 2. 6) Mark to market transaction relatively low. 7) CA litigation/exposure relatively small. Plenty of other factors too. Should see 3-4 sometime in Feb. Looking for 4-6+ after Feb refi and 10+ again in 12-18 months. Don't plan on selling a share until at least 10. Since I'm already overweighted I'm not planning on adding unless it sees 1.5 again. My basis is 1.85.

To: longdong_63 who wrote (23123)	12/9/2002 2:51:57 PM
From: Canuck Dave	Respond to of 36161

Fed has also openly signaled it's desire to fight deflation. I saw a cute description of the policy as the Bernanke put. In other words, the Fed will be putting a floor under corporate debt if they feel it is necessary by buying long dated treasury or corporate bonds. The implied policy shift means that the war on inflation is over, so.... All asset classes will be potentially bullish. Gold, stocks, bonds, real estate, who knows? One thing is certain. Cash will be an under performing asset as they make more of it. Just be in something seems to be the best policy, IMO. CD