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To: NOW who wrote (208601)	12/9/2002 5:14:46 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

on COST, my read is that return on capital is declining. when that happens, multiples compress. mind you, the return on capital is not BAD, it is just falling (by my calculations). COST has in the past been a high-multiple stock. it is less-so now (it trades at about 15-16x August '04) but i still think there's room for multiple compression. if they miss, that multiple compression will come all at once; if they don't it'll happen in dribs and drabs (as has been going on for 2-ish years). this is not Sears or anything like that. i'm targeting +/- $20 bucks on this one. Cheers