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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ilaine who wrote (25974)	12/10/2002 10:58:02 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello CB, <<I told you months ago ...>> I remember it was I who told you first, repeatedly, with much difficulty, and I am sure I can prove it. <<the dollar to weaken against other currencies>> I said this event comes at the end of the Script. <<Dollar down means foreign goods are more expensive and we run a smaller trade deficit>> You left out the Scripted parts about: (a) one-off inflation pops due to forex changes (b) interest rate increase due to lack of faith by creditors (c) bonds in pension plans gets slaughtered, after having stocks decimated (d) productive capital expenditure fail to rise (e) housing implodes (f) consumers stop charging and starts saving (g) economy continues to spiral due to above mentioned capital expenditure, housing and consumption conditions (h) unemployment hits 10% (i) real income drops (j) dollar drops more (k) ... But, to buyers of <<real Parmigiano Reggiano>>, all of above may be indeed be irrelevant, trivial, or otherwise endurable, to the extent that Central Bankers responsible for such harshness are anticipated with relish or <<glee>>. <<Oddly enough, even though the dollar is down against the Euro, Reggiano is cheaper ... Guess the Italians want to keep selling whatever it takes?>> Not so very odd. Competitive devaluation or forever price discount by traditional means exactly that, prices come down. <<One more thing the Chinese can't make as well>> I am not sure what China has to do with anything, but, in any case, do not fret, Chinese <<Reggiano>> is on way, just as Chinese Buick's are already in Manila. <<Chinese crawfish tastes like garbage>> China's crawfish is actually America's crawfish, because China didnot have such creatures farmed before the ex-Louisiana Govt and cronies introduced same. <<Chinese honey is full of pesticides>> Perhaps the ones you buy, but not the ones I consume. I just completed a trip with a somewhat anti-freetrader (and therefore anti-China) US businessman (factory, radio station, boxing gym owner), who, before he came on the trip, was of the belief that China's rivers had no live fish. I quote from him as he saw what was going on with the country, economy, workers, education, officialdom, etc, 'I came, and saw Jesus'. <<US GDP is 20% of world GDP. China is about 3%>> China's economy will overtake Europe in 5 years on present trajectory. Japan and US will simply be additional milestones. As of this precise moment in history, the largest and most faithful believers of <<central planning will take care of things>> resides not in Europe, because they are already afraid, and not in Asia, because we know better. You are clearly not afraid yet. <<I am sure you can think of many clever ways to make money>> Sadly, no, not really, and nothing more original than ... you guessed right, gold. Therefore, any additional suggestions you may have would be most welcomed. <<Even in the deepest darkest days of the Great Depression, most people in the US had jobs and enjoyed the low prices.>> Great, so let us welcome another depression without hesitation. Whatever responsible messages that should be disseminated, they should get people to work for an honest day's wage and save for a better future. Chugs, Jay