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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (10227)	12/11/2002 3:27:41 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 89467

I wrote Frank Lechner an email asking about Real Estate excellent article, but a bit simplistic too much faith in the Feds working successfully off a script for RE it all hinges upon job security and income now Rich Russell expects the emphasis in 2003 to shift from low rates to greater job income insecurity I agree bigtime wait until the automobile sector layoffs hit in force by next spring and summer, it will be a deluge 1/7-th of the US economy jobs come from car sector rates are already at 0%, and the industry is stalling horribly / jim

To: stockman_scott who wrote (10227)	12/11/2002 4:15:31 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 89467

quick Q & A with Jim Sinclair on the Iraqi war cost Question: Jim, can you recommend some good article on the potential cost of the war with Iraq. How are we going to pay for it in the present economic environment? Answer: Yes, there has been some sound work done on the cost of the upcoming US invasion. Of the few good articles done so far I recommend; The Economist's article titled "Calculating the Consequences" on page 63 of the November 30th 2002 issue under the section "Finance & Economics." This article breaks down the cost of the conflict by direct military spending plus follow through costs. The follow through costs are further broken down into occupation and peacekeeping, reconstruction and nation building, humanitarian assistance, impact on oil markets, and macroeconomic impact. The low estimate runs USD121 billions and the high estimate is USD1,595 billions. Since your inquiry was about articles I noted the Wall Street Journal, Friday, December 6th 2002 titled "The Cost of Fighting" by Robert Hormats, page A14 ran an editorial that asked the question, "How are we going to pay for the war?" This editorial primarily asked the question but offered no hard answers. Allow me to point to a probable answer. Governor Barnanke of the US Federal Reserve explained to us recently that he has a "Printing press or its electronic counterpart whereby he can produce money at practically no cost." I submit to you the possibility that this war has another purpose and that is stimulate the economy. I wonder if Greenspan & Barnanke have signed on the Bush War Plan and its financing while the past secretary of the Treasury and the Chief economic advisor to the White house were less supportive. Sure it is a strategy to have a scapegoat for poor economic results for the sitting administration but I wonder if that strategy really is worth two appointment's resignations. Do you not think there may have been somewhat more to it. There is a possibility that the present administration is going back to the Roosevelt experience and how the deflation of the 30s was finally ended. My Conclusion is concise: The dollar is going lower and gold is going higher and there is nothing that the Exchange Stabilization Fund or Gold Cartel can do to stop it. Further it is happening right now.