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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (15464)	12/10/2002 3:56:53 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

clarification?? on XAU are you calling a top or is that a high for allocation to that fund??

To: J.T. who wrote (15464)	12/10/2002 6:04:54 PM
From: High-Tech East	Respond to of 19219

... I'm not supposed to do this, but it won't stop me today ... <g> ... from murphymorris.com (John Murphy) - no charts - Tuesday, Dec 10, 2002 - U.S. DOLLAR TESTING MULTI-YEAR UPTREND LINE - GOLD ON VERGE OF MULTI-YEAR BREAKOUT? Posted: 4:56 PM Eastern U.S. DOLLAR CHALLENGING KEY TRENDLINE SUPPORT... The market is up today -- and major stock averages remain above their 50-day moving averages. However, volume remained light. We continue to leave open the possiblity for the traditional Santa Clause rally that usually takes place during the second half of the month. However, stock market direction may also depend on the direction of the U.S. Dollar. Recent declines in the Dollar Index has pushed it into a challenge of its long-term uptrend line that has been in place for seven years. Failure to hold above this support zone could be bearish for stocks. The long-term stochastic indicator is oversold. The monthly MACD lines, however, remain negative. The fact that the dollar is at a critical chart juncture also holds important implications for the gold market. A breakdown in the dollar at this point would be bullish for gold prices, which may be on the verge of a major bullish breakout. GOLD & SILVER INDEX FORMING LONG-TERM HEAD & SHOULDER REVERSAL PATTERN... Last week, we pointed out that the XAU had broken above its short-term downtrend line resistance. In addition to this positive change short-term, the long-term price action appears to be forming a multi-year bullish head and shoulder reversal pattern. The left shoulder formed over a yearly period which spanned from mid-1998 through mid-1999. The head formed near the 2001 lows and the current price action appears to be forming the right shoulder. The RSI line is trending upward which is a bullish sign. MARKET BOUNCES ON LIGHT VOLUME... The stock market bounced today -- but on declining volume. The Nasdaq Composite rose 23 points. However, it remains below its 20-day moving average -- which defines its short-term trend. We continue to believe that the Nasdaq may have to retest its lower Bollinger Band (and 50-day average) before launching a yearend rally attempt. A close back above above its 20-day line is needed to turn its short-term trend back up again. murphymorris.com

To: J.T. who wrote (15464)	12/10/2002 11:31:10 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

thanks for those #'s Jt, in the past i would say those are humungous out of whack and bullish, but the rydex #'s are going their own way and not in sync with some of the other sentiment indicators, while the rydex ratios are showing huge bearish sentiment the p/c ratios have just turned down from fairly bullish levels vtoreport.com and the surveys are showing huge bullish sentiment spreads. right now a lot of it indicators have turned down like $bp indexes and summation indexes, the nasdaq failed to hold it's breakout creating an island reversal, these are so common place in bear markets, as they are common place in bull markets when the market breaks support and the bears go short and get trapped, the bulls need to re-capture the 1420 level on the weekly nasdaq to keep the bull case intact. remember SI's favorite perma-bear who never said anything bullish even in jest during 3500 nasdaq up points from the 98 lows, was telling everybody to buy calls on LU during the blow-off phase of this rally, i think they call that the hindenberg signal.

To: J.T. who wrote (15464)	12/11/2002 12:13:52 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 19219

Rydex Total Assets Update for Tuesday, December 10th, 2002: ************** Money Market 1.499 BILLION *********** Regular Series: (100% Correlation to Index (Nova 150%)) SPX Long - NOVA 243.5 Million SPX Short- URSA 554.8 Million NDX Long - OTC 519.6 Million NDX Short- ARKTOS 170.4 Million ********** Dynamic Series: (200% correlation to Index) SPX Long - TITAN 189.7 Million SPX Short- TEMPEST 336.8 Million NDX Long - VELOCITY 216.2 Million NDX Short- VENTURE 384.5 Million ********* Sector Funds: XAU Precious Metals 92.2 Million XOI Energy 23.8 Million OSX Energy Services 33.9 Million BKX Banking 17.6 Million BTK Biotech 160.7 Million RUT 2000 - MIKROS 101.5 Million RLX Retail 33.9 Million Telecommunications 61.4 Million *********************************** NYSE Members Net Balance index now north of 1.8 Billion shares bought and buried for all of 2002. Net Balance Index now up 34 out of the last 41 weeks since Feb 15 reporting week. Last week was up smartly off the 2 week lag the week of Nov 22nd - a week that should have experienced net selling on a solid up week. But they just keep on buying. We are on par course vs 1974 where the net balance index went up 39 out of 47 weeks into the end of 1974 before the mother launch. Only difference this year is, we already have an early jump off the October bottom, and 2003 will prove to be a nightmare to those looking for the death spiral. They pile into the Bear Funds like pigs swashing in the mud. The trap is set before these pigs get butchered. COMP 1,540 SPX 965 BKX 830 intraday highs dead ahead in the next week. XAU death spiral down to XAU 63.90 in next week. Best Regards, J.T.