To: elmatador who wrote (25998 ) 12/11/2002 4:25:51 AM From: TobagoJack Read Replies (1) | Respond to Hi Elmat, with no nationalistic nuance whatsoever, I predict that the HKD and Chinese Yuan will embrace the USD in a not coincidental spiral downward, and with maybe a lag, be joined by the Japanese Yen, followed by the Euro and other currencies, setting up a repeated try of the USD at devaluation, ... ad infinitum ad nauseam et cetera ... and once more, again, until we revisit World Economy 1929.prudentbear.com "Above all, China has proved resistant to Western ways. Its relatively closed borders to volatile Western leveraged capital (notwithstanding the pleas of Wall Street) enabled it to emerge from the regional crisis of 1997/98 relatively unscathed. As the recent data suggests, it is now well prepared for growth on its own terms (which is why one should not expect imminent capital account liberalisation and a corresponding revaluation of the currency). It will be the economic leader in the global recovery. Asian development strategies will continue to deepen further as China’s regional economic dominance expands. China is not the source of the world’s current problems; it is not, as is commonly argued “exporting deflation.” Rather, it has been the persistent refusal of the American government to conduct economic policy with an eye toward preventing a loss of US competitiveness and a corresponding rise in huge external imbalances which has caused the relative shift in economic fortunes in regard to America and Asia. That this has been ironically facilitated by successive American policy makers since Rubin, should not enable them hypocritically to complain about China “irresponsibly” exporting deflation to the rest of the world. The source of that deflation, and today’s quandary for American monetary and financial officials, are very much home-grown."
