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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: techlvr who wrote (125975)	12/11/2002 2:53:03 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

actually, i would sell QCOM short, except there are so many worse cos out there... QCOM at least has a positive value no matter how you slice it, whereas i think there are a number of cos out there that are completely worthless but not priced as such. also, QCOM's fundamentals seem to be improving, although i am skeptical that they are improving as much as the bulls believe. lastly, QCOM does not have debt problems. so the only big problem i see is that it is imo very overvalued. but as we all know, an overvalued stock can become more overvalued. so if i am shorting, i would rather have some other factors on my side besides simple overvaluation, and indeed i am able to find cos satisfying those requirements in this market. however, considering QCOM unsuitable as a short candidate is not the same as considering it a good long candidate. Your predictions get lower and lower no they don't. it all depends on the initial assumptions. one of my points is that any "prediction", whether bullish or bearish, is heavily dependent on these assumptions. so if i come up with a given target that's higher or lower than some other i gave, that is transparently a function of different assumptions. i, unlike the bulls, fully admit assumptions are arbitrary. if you don't like them, raise them X% and the target value changes accordingly. it doesn't mean the result is right or wrong; just that the assumptions have changed. to repeat: the initial assumptions are very important. in considering a long candidate, i think it is smart to have rather bearish or conservative assumptions, so that one can make money even if the bearish assumptions prove true. assuming that the earnings of QCOM, which have been stagnant for 3 years, are equal to what their pro forma numbers are, and further assuming that these numbers will compound at 35% for five years and then 25% for five years thereafter, is not my definition of conservative or bearish assumptions. also, i am not in the prediction-making business. who knows whether a given set of arbitrary assumptions will prove true, much less over what time span? nobody knows. when i state price targets, i merely state prices at which i would find the stock attractive for a given set of assumptions.