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To: GST who wrote (150754)	12/12/2002 10:03:14 AM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Correct - the Russians are not stupid. But your interpretation is wrong. They know that the US, if it does in fact remove Saddam from power by force, will go out of it's way to prove the critics and conspiracy theorists wrong and to honor pre-war contracts for legitimate trade, especially those held by allies. They also know that there is a reasonable chance that Saddam would leave power other than as a result of a US military invasion and that, in that case, their contracts would be at little risk (unless he is overthrown in the manner of Ceausescu, in which case the new gov't might be a bigger problem for Saddam's business partners than any US-led invasion). And no matter which scenario unfolds, they want to take advantage of this situation to sign all the new contracts they can. Perhaps the US should view this the way a bankruptcy court might and treat any new contracts as preference items.