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To: Oral Roberts who wrote (16216)12/12/2002 9:45:26 AM
From: MulhollandDrive  Respond to of 57110
 
"Perhaps unemployment means more to stock buyers then it did to futures traders. "

maybe they've figured out that all that productivity means a continuation of the "jobless recovery"




Many Are Urged to Raise Stock Holdings

By AMY BALDWIN 12/12/2002 08:01:28 EST
NEW YORK (AP) - Mutual fund shareholders currently enamored with money market accounts and bonds, the bear market's safer havens, might be interested in what some Wall Street firms are saying: Increase your stock holdings.

The Standard & Poor's Investment Policy Committee earlier this month advised that investors raise the equity portion of their portfolios to 65 percent from 60 percent and reduce their cash holdings to 20 percent from 25 percent.

The S&P committee maintained its recommendation that investors have 15 percent of their portfolio invested in bonds, which have performed quite well throughout the bear market but now face interest rate pressures following 12 rate cuts in the last two years by the Federal Reserve.

"We believe the S&P 500 and Nasdaq (composite) may advance in the range of 8 percent from current levels by mid-year 2003 and approximately 15 percent by year-end," said Sam Stovall, S&P's chief investment strategist.

On average, Wall Street's largest investment firms recommend a stock allocation of nearly 70 percent, a bond allocation of nearly 23 percent and cash allocation of about 7 percent.

But before investors start making any changes, financial planners say investors should examine their goals and consider how much risk they can take to determine how much to invest in stocks and bonds and how much to keep in cash.

"They should invest in a way that makes them feel comfortable," said Patricia Jennerjohn, financial planner and head of Focused Finances in Oakland, Calif. "It has a lot to do with their risk tolerance."

And, investors should keep in mind that not all of Wall Street is so gung-ho on stocks. This week, Merrill Lynch & Co. strategist Richard Bernstein lowered his recommended stock allocation to 45 percent from an already low 50 percent.

The bullish move from S&P and the upbeat sentiment among many Wall Street analysts reflects the growing belief that earnings and the economy are improving and will be even stronger next year. In August, S&P increased its equity allocation recommendation to 60 percent from 55 percent.

"We think that the economy and corporate profits will improve and that stocks came down to levels that were not justified by the fundamentals. (Investors) overshot the fundamentals," said Arnold Kaufman, editor of S&P's weekly newsletter "The Outlook."

Kaufman also said, "Given the continued high productivity and the likelihood that companies will be able to raise profits even in the face of continued competitive pressures on prices, we believe the market can move up at a decent percentage rate from the current depressed level."

But investors should also remember that appropriate asset allocation varies by individual. For investors who are five or more years away from needing to draw on their investments - whether for retirement, paying children's college bills or buying a house - Jennerjohn recommends having 65 to 70 percent invested in stocks and the rest in bonds and cash.

As investors near the time when they need to cash in some investments, Jennerjohn said they should simply adjust their equity allocation downward.

But she cautions against getting entirely out of stocks, no matter how old an investor is or even if the investor is in retirement. Growth in the stock market historically has been the best way to protect against the ravages of inflation, Jennerjohn noted.

"You don't want inflation to rust out your portfolio," she said. "You always need to have a growth engine in your portfolio. Over the long run, inflation is your enemy, not (market) volatility."

Jennerjohn also said that she agrees with S&P's overall message that it's time to invest more in stocks.

"Bonds have had quite a run. If you want to buy low and sell high, now is the time to increase your exposure to equities," she said. "You need to look at what seems cheap right now, and equities seem cheap."



To: Oral Roberts who wrote (16216)12/12/2002 9:50:25 AM
From: X Y Zebra  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 57110
 
watch out... gap in the pre... close it at the open (or just after) and then ?.....

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Lost 1 wants to short AMGN.... (I may join, after I see where they want to take it...) 50 seems to be a barrier... on Oct 17 it reached an intraday high of 52.0, then closed at 50.15....

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Amgen Forecasts Strong 2003 Financial PerformanceTotal Product Sales Expected to Range Between $6.7 and $7.2 Billion in 2003 Adjusted Earnings Per Share Expected to Range Between $1.70 and $1.80 in 2003 Total 2002 Product Sales Guidance Increased to Low 40% Range Resulting in Full Year Adjusted Earnings Per Share Between $1.37 and $1.39
PR NEWSWIRE - December 12, 2002 07:30
THOUSAND OAKS, Calif., Dec 12, 2002 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Amgen (Nasdaq: AMGN) today provided guidance for its 2003 financial performance. For 2003, Amgen expects adjusted earnings per share will range between $1.70 and $1.80 per share driven by sales from new and acquired products. The company also said its 2002 total product sales guidance was increased to a low 40 percent range that will result in adjusted earnings per share between $1.37 and $1.39.

"Amgen is positioned for an extremely strong year in 2003 as we continue to see the top line benefit of recently approved and acquired products. These products are well positioned in large and fast growing markets and possess best in class attributes," said Kevin Sharer, Amgen's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

Total product sales for 2003 are expected to be in the range of $6.7 and $7.2 billion.

The company expects combined sales of EPOGEN(R) (Epoetin alfa), Amgen's anemia therapy for patients on dialysis, and Aranesp(R) (darbepoetin alfa), its next-generation anemia treatment, to range between $3.2 and $3.4 billion in 2003. The company stated that this range assumes continued penetration of Aranesp into the U.S. oncology market and the continued success in capturing market share in Europe, and that Epogen sales growth will be driven by patient population growth in the 5-6 percent range.

Combined sales of NEUPOGEN(R) (Filgrastim), used to decrease the incidence of infection associated with many types of cancer chemotherapy treatments and Neulasta(TM) (pegfilgrastim), Amgen's once-per-cycle product for decreasing infections are expected to range between $2.1 and $2.3 billion in 2003 with more than half of the sales generated from Neulasta. The company stated that this assumes continued conversion of Neupogen to Neulasta and greater penetration into the G-CSF market through increased use of growth factors prophylactically.

The company continues to expect sales of Enbrel(R) (etanercept), Amgen's inflammation biologic, to range between $1.2 and $1.4 billion in 2003. This range assumes a reasonable review timeframe, by the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA), of the company's manufacturing and third party fill and finish facilities resulting in Enbrel supply relief early in the first quarter of 2003. The company indicated that the FDA inspections for Enbrel's manufacturing and fill and finish operations were complete and it is awaiting the FDA's decision on its supplemental biologic license application.

Amgen expects total revenue to range between $7.3 and $7.8 billion in 2003. The company projects combined 2003 revenues generated from Corporate Partner Revenue and Royalties to increase slightly when compared to 2002.

Amgen expects its 2003 tax rate to fall slightly from its 2002 rate as the company continues to benefit from recent changes in its manufacturing and sales and distribution functions.

Amgen defines adjusted operating expenses, adjusted earnings and the related per share amounts to exclude the effect of various acquisition related expenses, including the one-time non-cash write off of acquired in process research and development costs, ongoing non-cash amortization of acquired intangible assets, the incremental cost of compensation payable under the Immunex retention plan, and other merger related expenses directly resulting from the acquisition, and certain other nonrecurring items including in 2002, the one-time legal award from Johnson & Johnson and the recovery of certain amounts previously expensed in connection with terminating various third party collaboration agreements.

Amgen indicated that, to date, Wyeth has sold approximately 55 million shares of Amgen. These shares were acquired as part of the acquisition of Immunex by Amgen earlier in 2002, and resulted in Wyeth owning approximately 98 million shares of Amgen.

Supplementary Financial Information

This information is being provided in this press release as a convenience to investors and inclusion of any information herein is not a determination by Amgen that such information is material. Amgen is providing this information as of December 12, 2002 and disclaims any duty to update information contained in this summary.

For the year ending December 31, 2003, Amgen expects that:

-- Total adjusted operating expenses will range between $4.2 and
$4.5 billion

-- Capital expenditures will range between $1.3 and $1.5 billion

-- GAAP earnings per share is expected to be approximately $.20 lower in
2003 than adjusted earnings per share due to the amortization of
acquired intangible assets and the incremental cost of compensation

payable under the Immunex retention plan.
Forward-looking Statements

This news release contains forward-looking statements that involve significant risks and uncertainties, including those discussed below and more fully described in the Securities and Exchange Commission reports filed by Amgen, including our most recent Form 10-Q. Amgen conducts research in the biotechnology/pharmaceutical field where movement from concept to product is uncertain; consequently, there can be no guarantee that any particular product candidate will be successful and become a commercial product.

Furthermore, our research, testing, pricing, marketing and other operations are subject to extensive regulation by domestic and foreign government regulatory authorities. In addition, sales of our products are affected by reimbursement policies imposed by third party payors, including governments, private insurance plans and managed care providers. These government regulations and reimbursement policies may affect the development, usage and pricing of our products.

In addition, while we routinely obtain patents for our products and technology, the protection offered by our patents and patent applications may be challenged, invalidated or circumvented by our competitors.

Because forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, actual results may differ materially from current results expected by Amgen. Amgen is providing this information as of December 12, 2002 and expressly disclaims any duty to update information contained in this press release.

Amgen is a global biotechnology company that discovers, develops, manufactures and markets important human therapeutics based on advances in cellular and molecular biology.

CONTACT: Amgen, Thousand Oaks Jeff Richardson, 805/447-3227 (media) Cary Rosansky, 805/447-4634 (investors)

SOURCE Amgen

CONTACT: media, Jeff Richardson, +1-805-447-3227, or investors, Cary Rosansky, +1-805-447-4634, both of Amgen

URL: amgen.com

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Copyright (C) 2002 PR Newswire. All rights reserved.