Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dr. Jeff who wrote (209198)	12/12/2002 10:29:02 AM
From: Lucretius	Respond to of 436258

yea, well stocks don't seem to give a rip

To: Dr. Jeff who wrote (209198)	12/12/2002 12:00:53 PM
From: Earlie	Respond to of 436258

Dr. J. My oh my. (g) I couldn't care less about the short term momentum-type trading that appears to have dominated the market's actions of the last few weeks. Let them keep their blinders in place and play musical chairs even as the U.S. economic numbers provide solid evidence of returning recession. Gold irresolutely pushing for the magic $330 number? U.S. dollar once again flirting with its recent lows (down close to 20% from its highs and nary a newspaper headline)? Retail sales looking worse than tatty? Burgeoning lay-offs and unemployment becoming an unrelenting tide that is ravaging consumer confidence? Commercial lease rates falling like fall leaves? Industrial capacity utilization rates already mirroring former depression numbers? Corporate borrowing falling off the graph? High tech sales completely cratered and showing no signs of any rebound (and why should they given the "commoditized" environment)?Corporate profits continuing to implode? Government deficits exploding even as all-important foreign investors (who finance those deficits) commence a quiet exodus? And above all else, the deeply indebted U.S. consumer (finally) starting to return to savings mode (and/or bankruptcy)? Let those with hair trigger trading reflexes have their fun. Unless the U.S. actually goes to war (which tends to be good for markets), well before next summer, the U.S. economy will be well entrenched in recession. Even our good friend J6P smells this one coming and is starting to adapt to it. Part of his adaptation process involves reduced spending, a return to saving and mutual fund redemption (all of which, by the way, are already picking up some momentum) and none of this is positive (in the short or intermediate term) for either the economy or the stock markets. Trading this slow but accelerating economic contraction from the the long side is for those with nerves of steel and very good telephone connections to trading desks. (g) Best, Earlie