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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: westpacific who wrote (10325)	12/12/2002 12:01:32 PM
From: westpacific	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 89467

Anyone see the news on smallpox rumor!!!

To: westpacific who wrote (10325)	12/12/2002 12:46:43 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 89467

USDollar breakdown is imminent, now 104.5 quotes.ino.com cannot have gold rising without dollar falling they dont like each other in fact, they are at war with each other one threatens the existence of the other gonna be wild watching the Fed Monetizing their fat asses off a falling dollar will raise prices from import products and components, to commodities generally they want to reflate, but what I expect they will get is price inflation in select areas I eagerly await a flat CPI with a large rise in Food/Energy let's display the dichotomy for all to see but still the blind will not see economists make this huge regular mistake they think in aggregate the world is not aggregated instead we have a multitude of sectors commodities from energy to grains to gold will be rising I believe they will not be able to control GOLD / jim

To: westpacific who wrote (10325)	12/12/2002 2:17:27 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 89467

gold miner stock gains are confined to the larger caps finance.yahoo.com^hui+^xau+cdu.v+sea.v+nri.to+nem+kgc+gg+gfi+glg+hmy+drooy+hl+ssri+sil+paas&d=v1 Newmont GoldFields Harmony DurbanDeep Kinross PanAmSilver SilverStandard load up on the juniors, since they rise next then the tiny pups / jim

To: westpacific who wrote (10325)	12/12/2002 2:42:12 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

exchange with Frank Lechner (re: his GoldEagle article) his article appeared a few days ago, with invitation to email his thesis was that Real Estate might continue rising until 2007 -------------------- From: Jim Willie CB To: <whynotgold@msn.com> Subject: quick question on Real Estate Date: Wed, 11 Dec 2002 15:24:18 -0500 Hi Frank, nice article on 321gold the USGovt is surely going to try to reflate but they will encounter significant obstacles as debt liquidation, lost pricing power, and soon higher rates might interfere with their plans as they allow the USdollar to come down, the surprise might be higher longterm rates, not lower that is what I anticipate so my question is this: if jobs continue to be shed by troubled corporations, and households retrench from high debt levels and reduced job security, wont real estate prices come down gradually? Greg Weldon is quoted by John Mauldin as expecting a sudden illiquidity-driven 15% drop in RE prices, followed by 3-4 years of "giving off gas" I expect something similar Richard Russell expects that next year the emphasis will shift to income insecurity, and away from low interest rates, as the price supports for RE prices erode I agree whole-heartedly I anticipate the USGovt will not be capable of playing off a designed script not with the extreme hazards from Monetization efforts I appreciate any response thank you / Jim Willie CB -----Original Message----- From: Frank A Lechner [mailto:whynotgold@msn.com] Sent: Thursday, December 12, 2002 2:30 PM To: Jim Willie CB Subject: Re: quick question on Real Estate Hi Jim, Firstly, I agree with the higher rates over time issue. Yet, go back and look at the mid-70's, real estate continued to rise even in stagflation and eventually high inflation conditions. If anything, without major job losses, real estate should tread water in the near future. We will not see marked decreases in RE until the deflationary winter hits in full force. The charts over time show this. Some areas will decrease, but on a macro basis, no. The illiquidity will be in the mid range homes if any. If a person is asking 300K for a home and the market is offering 275K, yet the same home 5 years ago sold for 225K, then is there truly a setback in pricing? I do not believe so, just an overzealous seller. The government will be flying blind into this storm, reacting to events instead of planning future events. Thanks, Frank sent: Dec 12, 2002 (2:35pm) Frank, thanks for your reply much appreciated tend to agree all through but I believe jobs will be in greater jeopardy than currently seen / jim