Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (7301)	12/12/2002 4:47:07 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

they're not thinking. Japan is run by a hundred-headed hydra of bureaucrats. the Japanese do not have a real government as we understand the term. this is pretty scary when you consider how much they own in US assets. stupid real estate investments there are just par for the course. they have trillions of yen in trade surplus which they must recycle each year. one of the outlets for that is crazy construction projects, which ooze over the entire country. one of the reasons why tiny Japan uses more concrete than the United States. read "Dogs and Demons" if you want to learn how insane their government is. read "Japan's Policy Trap" is you want to get scared about the implications for the US. the bizarre monster that is today's Japanese govt, and its grotesque symbiotic relationship with the US, is a big reason why i own a fair amount of gold equities.

To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (7301)	12/12/2002 5:00:42 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

what are these people thinking?? This same commercial property cycle has occurred in Los Angeles since 1990, though to a smaller degree. By the time prices start to firm, new projects built on property bought at distressed prices, create new space further depressing land prices. The free market can often out-stupid any bureaucrat. Sam Zell realized this a long time ago. When the market peaks, he always sold almost his entire portfolio. He now operates with OPM (other people's money) so he sells off less property. But he can more easily sell off shares in his own REIT to buy back later. Real estate is always at a premium at the top of a bubble. It's often a good investment when no one wants it. As Betty Tradelite says, "real estate always goes up, just so long as you can ride out those 95% declines in value." "Your rate of return may be pitiful, but when you retire in another 150 years you'll be glad you invested."

To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (7301)	12/12/2002 5:18:17 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

A good example of this problem in Los Angeles are the landmark Arco Towers. The Japanese home builder, Shuwa Investments, bought this 2.2 million square foot high-rise complex in 1986 for $650 million. They are expected to complete a sale in 2003 for close to $180 million. That $470 million loss doesn't even include the major upgrades Shuwa made to the property. Japanese investors lost more than $1 billion on the sale of the Bonaventure Hotel in downtown Los Angeles.