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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry D who wrote (7703)	12/12/2002 9:35:00 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 95520

RE: "2. The Killer Apps..." I think this is the most noteworthy prediction because it comes at a time when many see no "killer app". I agree with the choice of apps.

To: Terry D who wrote (7703)	12/12/2002 9:43:54 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95520

Semiconductor Equipment . . . Cymer expects 4th quarter results to be inline with the company's most recent guidance. Management now expects revenues to be at the favorable end of down 20%-25% quarter/quarter, Gross Margins at the high end of 32%-35%, R&D at the high end of the 26%-30% of revs, down 3%-8% in absolute dollars (vs. original 10-15%), and SG&A to be 11%-13% of revenues (versus original 13-15%). The company sees R&D spending down only 3%-8% quarter/quarter on an absolute dollar basis versus its original estimate of down 10%-15% because of higher XLA 100 development costs associated with scheduled 1st quarter 2003 deliveries. Management still expects its currency adjusted ASP to be $710,000. Management still expects a book to bill ratio of 1.0 or higher, implying that orders may be up 9%-16% sequentially from last quarter's $58.3M (b:b of 0.69). Analysts are tweaking model slightly. Analysts are now estimating revenues to be $66.7 million (down 21% quarter/quarter) versus original estimate of $65.5 million (down 22.5% quarter/quarter), and are now estimating a loss per share of $0.13, up from original estimate of ($0.14). The 2002 EPS estimate goes from $0.37 to $0.38, 2003 estimate goes from $0.14 to $0.15, and 2004 estimate goes from $1.18 to $1.20. The company expects to report fourth quarter results on Tuesday, January 28, 2003 after the market close. Analysts attended Agilent's analyst meeting in New York. Ned Barnholt, the chairman, president and CEO gave an overview of the company's strategy and the current environment, then Bill Sullivan, EVP and COO gave an update of operations followed by Adrian Dillon, EVP and CFO who gave a financial update. The General Managers of the different product groups gave brief overviews of their areas. Management focused on two main points throughout the presentations: 1) Agilent will grow through added share even if the markets don't recover; and 2) Agilent will continue to take advantage of the strength of its "R&D engine." Agilent continues to pound away and reinforce the message that the company will get to breakeven, soon, one way or another. The management seems very determined and convinced. In our view the company is making good progress and remains on track to achieve that goal. The company also appears to be on track with its wide ranging technology roll out and restructuring including; CRM, ERP and web based applications. This is perhaps an even larger restructuring than the headcount and location reductions and should have a huge impact in the end. Semiconductors . . . RBC Capital upgraded ATI Tech to Outperform from Sector Perform. The firm is saying they believe the co is set to post solid growth rates into 2003 and outperform its digital media IC peers. The firm raised price target to $9.50 from $8. Maxim Integrated sued by Qualcomm over patents. 2020insight.com