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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (26066)	12/12/2002 8:56:22 PM
From: Eva	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74559

Sir, I have bookmarked you and read everything you posted since I stumbled upon your writings by accident a couple of month ago. You are by far the most proficient, versatile,articulate and most of all colorfully interesting writer on SI Thank You Eva

To: TobagoJack who wrote (26066)	12/12/2002 11:26:23 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

China is the Golden Boy of the day. The world always need one. The people are hard working. The leadership have some characteristic not found elsewhere. Their young are clever etc etc. German wirtschaftwunder. Japan. The Asian boom (that went Kaboom). Brazil in the early 70's (The US in 1920 and will make). Now it is China's turn for their 15 minutes of fame. Until it goes Kaboom. Just wait for the Olympic Games. You are going to see the whole world massging the ego of the Chinese real good. But look again. The last thing the Chinese invented was the compass. It is famous for shooting themselves in the foot. Sunk their ships and stop producing iron in the middle of the last millennium and went back to its insignificance. For me all those Golden boys of the day are like fireworks: They shine bright and colorful and you'll hear: Kaboom. Jay knows it. hey Jay you are as Chinese as I am Brazilian!!!

To: TobagoJack who wrote (26066)	12/13/2002 12:21:28 PM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

You are consistent, Jay, in presenting the glass half empty view: >>Its existence for the past 4000 plus years is an accident, due to its stupid people and their inability to learn, innovate, work, save, and learn some more<< >>Bottom line, China will fall apart due to its own weight, and all the terrible leadership mistakes made since 1982, or 1482, or 982, or 482, or gad, BC 1482<< Bottom line, China is struggling with a very difficult transition from a command economy to a capitalist economy, but all is not as dark as you suggest. China is in fact not one country, but two or three or more. A vast hinterland exists in medieval feudalism while on the coast, in two largely separate regions with proximity to Hong Kong and Shanghai, entrepreneurs are creating countless small to mid-size manufacturing entities that are supplying the globe with low value-added manufactured products. Large numbers of state-owned enterprises exist as a huge money-losing, drag-inducing economic sea-anchor, sustained by oceans of non-performing politically-driven loans from insolvent banks. The truth, then, is more like this: Some regions and areas of economic activity are producing very real rapid growth, while at the same time the state-owned enterprises are largely in a state of collapse. The rural provinces will feed the coastal industrial areas with unlimited supplies of low-cost labor and Chinese entrepreneurs will continue to work around the corruption and the ideological dogma of Communism for the foreseeable future. >>Bottom line, China will fall apart due to its own weight<< Will China, in fact, collapse? China is arguably in much better shape than the former Soviet Union post-1989. A country facing both political transition and economic transition does much better when the economic transition comes first, as in China, than when the political transition comes first, as with the USSR. So at some point China will "collapse" as did the USSR, but less so, as, unlike the USSR, there are a couple of hundred million Chinese who will know exactly what to do post-Chinese Communism.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (26066)	12/13/2002 11:31:34 PM
From: RealMuLan	Respond to of 74559

excellent! Jay

To: TobagoJack who wrote (26066)	12/13/2002 11:52:27 PM
From: maceng2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

P.S. and one more thing, when folks make money in Asia, they tend not to talk about it, so as to facilitate keeping same Freaking Asians !! How can one deal with them on the straight and level? I am sure there is a way, but it has to be negotiated I guess. Freaking Asians once again! Now listen I wanta deal where I actually make some money instead of lose it. You guys are sharp, how can I do that? lets deal -g- maybe not, should I just wire all my money to you? It maybe save me a whole lot of trouble -LOL- rgds, pb.