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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan Duchardt who wrote (15564)	12/13/2002 1:24:55 AM
From: Joseph Silent	Respond to of 19219

I believe the issue of shares being loaned out for shorting "at most once" is easily dispatched if we recognize that the proportion s (in my example) of shares sold short is almost always a small fraction (i.e., even 0.1 would be very large, I think) of all available shares. Therefore, if a share is loaned out more than once for shorting, you may "consider" the second loan a new share from the bunch that have not been loaned out yet. Since s is a very small fraction usually, it is never a problem. This agrees with your short interest percentages of 10% to 15%. If we (formally) do allow shares to be loaned out more than once, and say up to X times (where X is also the number of shares available overall), then the simple proof I gave can be extended to show that you can never get a ratio greater than 100%. It will approach 100% but never exceed it. Anyway, this is all moot, because they make rules and violate them all the time. :)

To: Dan Duchardt who wrote (15564)	12/13/2002 9:39:13 AM
From: dvdw©	Respond to of 19219

Thanks for contributing Dan. The fact is you could never know the truth about what amount is short at any given time. MM # is not reported in Short data published each month. Other issues about % that are foggy is that Shares loaned out by Insiders are not part of the Float, so technicaly those shares loaned could push Short numbers above 100% of the float, but not the outstanding. This is how the market is able to arrange price structure to suit accumulation and distribution. A stock can be Obfuscated to appear weak when it is actually very strong. It's these machinations that allow the trade to sell P&F to traders, when in fact P&F is as bad as OBV because of the data it does not measure. If the market COULD be about straight forward Supply and demand we'd all be on equal footing, but that isnt going to happen anytime soon.