Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeffrey S. Lillie who wrote (20023)	12/13/2002 6:29:51 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 30712

I agree, the initial drop should be contained by the area around 1347-1350. A bounce should take us back to at least 1367 COMP, and then it's decision time. Do we do a .382 re-trace from there to COMP 1411, and make a double top? That would get us high side Max Pain, but leave us a little lacking on the low side Max Pain, but not too much. It should be interesting. I might buy 1350 COMP, but I'll be watching what to do at 1367.

To: Jeffrey S. Lillie who wrote (20023)	12/21/2002 9:27:02 AM
From: Jeffrey S. Lillie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

Here is a post of mine from last friday. i had outlined targets for spx, nas and ndx on the downside and then the pivot highs should we ever get a real bounce. spx target was hit exactly (so far) at 880. nas target of 1350 was pierced to 1345 but i was allowing for 10-15 points more drop on monday(which didnt happen) which would be 1347. so if the low today holds i missed by one nas point. ndx target of 990 has not as of yet been met and was my worst call. we got as low as 1000 so i was too agressive on the downside by 10 points. it has been showing some relative strength compared to the nasdaq. i look at that as a positve development for the bounce i am looking for. I am still holding all mutual fund long positions in IRA and 401k that went into market last friday at ndx 1006. they are slightly positive but precariosly close to even. The RYVNX is still underwater from 1066. if we bounce on monday to 1050 i will get enought puts to hedge that postion. sox puts have been sold and flipped into calls and closed out. so as of close this friday i have no downside protection similar to last friay as i am expecting the indexes to move up this week. i have not seen anything in the markets to warrant a change of my pivot highs for this bounce(where the fark are you?????). i would expect the bounce to be done by no later than friday jan 3rd. They remain as from last week at: spx 930 nas 1460 ndx 1088. i was wrong about this week marking more of a high than a low. I felt the end of week was more likely a high than a low. well the cycle guys bested me here as we defintitely made a low not a high. Now the question is do we go higher or lower after their low call. I say higher. As for my comment about not giving a rats ass to what the cycle guys think. i stand by that. it has only screwed up my trading in the past when i tailored my trades based on that input. i now trade what is in front of me on 15 and 60 min spx charts via puts and calls. despite me looking up last friday, my spx option account as a whole was up 92% on the week as i flipped between puts and cals throughout the week. My best week of my life by far. I still cant point to one thing and say this is why we are going up. i see more things that favor up every day. One thing is true, we could have barfed on monday like many thought. we didn't. we could have barfed on thursday. we didnt'. Yes there are a LOT of things saying the downtrend has resumed. I want to make this clear. I agree. I am looking for a bounce to set lower highs than on dec 2nd. i dont see any reason why we cant bounce to my targets and then drop like a stone (i believe is the phase i used). Back in November i was one of the few or only one looking for THE high right around T_DAY. Well we got what sure looks like the high the day after my fri target. People were sure we went to higher levels in dec and jan and tday was just a local high in uptrend on way to the jan high. Well i stuck to what i believed and was short via RYVNX or in cash. it worked out great. Now, i am looking for a bounce. Granted i am not alone in this as human tendency is to be bullish for the most part. After the bounce i am full on bearish again. I will be in short funds puts or cash depending on the choices in my various accounts. j To:Jeffrey S. Lillie who wrote (20016) From: Jeffrey S. Lillie Friday, Dec 13, 2002 4:53 PM View Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21060 well, we almost got the 1360 nas close (actual 1362 ish). Despite my feeling that there is downside of about 10-15 nas/ndx points on monday, i went shopping. tis the season after all. my rough glance targets in the case that we go lower on monday are below as are my bounce targets for next week/early week after. i don't pay a rats ass to what most of the cycle guys think( i do find it intersesting to read though) as it always ends up getting me in trouble. So, im doing my own thing with all of the threads help, and my results are improving nicely. index/lows in today or these numbers/ bounce targets before next leg down. spx / 880 / 930 nas / 1350 / 1460 ndx / 990 / 1088 as for the end of the day i was a busy beaver. invested 100% of my 401k in NDX 100 fund invested 50% of wifes 401k in NDX 100 fund. sold all spx 925 puts for over a triple remaining positions that i had from before are the RYVYX in my IRA which is well under water from 1066 ndx. SOX 355 puts. Hey, i wanted to have something make money if market is down on monday. This leaves the proceeds from puts in cash to be deployed in spx calls if we are going up from monday or to rehedge with puts if we don't look like we are going up. i anticipate selling the sox puts on monday if down in am. j