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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (16594)12/13/2002 7:19:11 PM
From: MulhollandDrive  Respond to of 57110
 
i find the gold scenario unlikely too..but as an aside...i remember when it ran up to the $800's and how quickly it happened...and i wasn't even a participant in the financial markets at that time....just remember the news coverage. we didn't have nearly the financial coverage that we do today...it was just a small segment usually less than a minute on the "nightly news".

imagine what we'd see if gold really started to run up quickly....

don't even want to think about it. <g>



To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (16594)12/13/2002 8:27:56 PM
From: X Y Zebra  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 57110
 
I just don't think wage inflation is possible for the forseeable future and as you say no pricing power= no inflation...

Agreed. The rate at which the population is growing in the 3rd. World is reaching levels that boggles my mind how they will be able to maintain these countries from falling in total chaos.

Look at Argentina (which as far as population goes, it is one more in line with Western standards due to the heavy European influence. i.e. approx population 37.8 mill growth popl growth rate 1.3 % *2000*)

cia.gov

The place is a mess, I really have no idea what will happen there. As for other countries their population growth is troublesome...

Other countries with larger populations.... say Brazil:

Estimated: 176 mil plus. grwoth rate .87 % (estimate)

How will these people be employed? and what impact will they have on wages in the US and other Western economies? Just as you point out earlier, the outsourcing of manufacturing from US companies to these economies will take any sort of inflationary effect in the US.

However... the other side of the coin is, if all this manufacturing jobs go elsewhere, what will happen to employment and wages here? not a happy answer I am sure. Will this bring other evils (in stead of inflation)? and what effects will they have?

Higher taxation ? (to cover benefits, or whatever else the politicians will promise to get elected)

Unrest by the American labor unions ?

Protectionism ? import barriers to products which are manufactured in these (probably labled) slave-wage-countries?

I do not know... but it will make trading difficult as the level of uncertainty will be greater than anticipated.

Bottom line... we as traders... How can we benefit from these conditions?

I have long held the view that gold is not a "productive" asset, so in my eyes, gold will shine only if enough people become convinced that the productivity of the US economy will deteriorate. If so, gold price will be sought as protection of value... it is certainly possible since the alternatives to the US Dollar are only the Yen and the Euro. Neither of the two seem attractive as a "store of value" Which leaves gold (possibly the Swiss Franc) so long so there are enough people convinced the US economy is shot. Possible... I think so... but ther has to be a catastrophic event... not only a war, but a war with BIG consequences....

Price of gold went nuts in the late 70's early 80's because of the oil embargo and the consequences that came with it... the skyrocketing in the price of gold was not an isolated event. There was a massive loss of confidence in the US dollar due to the inflation created by the price of oil --and the outlook at that time that OPEC created for industrialized economies. So demand for gold simply ran-over its supply... (and it was not sustained, we know what happened afterwards) Will it happen again?

Is there in the horizon an event like the oil embargo that could trigger such loss of confidence ? I do not know.

A total financial collapse I suppose is feasible, but I am certain that officials will do the impossible to restore such confidence.... Corporations will have an important role in whatever development may evolve to restore confidence...

So... what can possibly cause the total loss of confidence....

imo a terrorist attack of such magnitude that the word "nuclear" would have to be included.

I think deflation will be a larger threat. While I think there are enough small companies out there that are growing and doing fine... this will be limited to specific fields and will not matter much if unemployment becomes a big problem...

So, all this still leaves me with the question of how to benefit (as a trader ) from all of the above....

As of yet, my only possible answer is short term trades (long/short), I do not see the under which a steadier growth could be achieved....

The only positive (if one can call it that) is that so long there is no catastrophic event, then the longer we "drag on" the existing uncertainty, the longer a stronger base could be built for a more reasonable growth in the future... but that carries a big question mark



To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (16594)12/13/2002 9:30:55 PM
From: Perry Ganz  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 57110
 
NASDAQ Announces the Annual Re-ranking of NASDAQ-100 Index
Friday December 13, 6:30 pm ET
The Index Has Outperformed Every Major U.S. Stock Index on a Cumulative Basis Since 1992

NEW YORK, Dec. 13 /PRNewswire/ -- The Nasdaq Stock Market, Inc. (NASDAQ) announced today the annual re-ranking of the NASDAQ-100 Index®, effective with the market open on Monday, December 23, 2002.
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"The NASDAQ-100 Index is the basis for some 400 financial products worldwide, up from 7 products just 4 years ago, and has truly become one of the world's most closely watched barometers of financial market activity," said John L. Jacobs, chief executive officer of NASDAQ Financial Products Services, Inc. "In fact, it has outperformed every other major stock index in the U.S. on a cumulative basis since 1992."

The following 15 issues will be added to the NASDAQ-100 Index: Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (Nasdaq: EXPD - News), Ross Stores, Inc. (Nasdaq: ROST - News), DENTSPLY International Inc. (Nasdaq: XRAY - News), Lamar Advertising Company (Nasdaq: LAMR - News), Whole Foods Market, Inc. (Nasdaq: WFMI - News), First Health Group Corp. (Nasdaq: FHCC - News), PETsMART, Inc. (Nasdaq: PETM - News), Pixar (Nasdaq: PIXR - News), Fastenal Company (Nasdaq: FAST - News), American Power Conversion Corporation (Nasdaq: APCC - News), C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (Nasdaq: CHRW - News), Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (Nasdaq: PTEN - News); Gentex Corporation (Nasdaq: GNTX - News); Henry Schein, Inc. (Nasdaq: HSIC - News); and Ryanair Holdings plc (Nasdaq: RYAAY - News).

The NASDAQ-100 Index is composed of the 100 largest non-financial stocks on the NASDAQ Stock Market and dates to January 1985 when it was launched along with the NASDAQ Financial-100 Index, which is comprised of the 100 largest financial stocks on NASDAQ. These indices were originally designed to segment NASDAQ into two major industry groups to support media coverage and to act as benchmarks for financial products such as options, futures, and funds. The NASDAQ-100 is re-ranked each year in December, timed to coincide with the triple witch options expiration Friday of the quarter.

"The NASDAQ-100 Index uses a set of objective, transparent criteria to ensure that it accurately reflects the largest non-financial companies listed on NASDAQ," said Mr. Jacobs. "The companies in the Index are among the world's most dynamic, category-defining companies and have been added to the NASDAQ-100 because of their market capitalization and compliance with our strict rules-based criteria."

Shares of each company in the Index are included in the NASDAQ-100 Index Tracking Stock(SM) (QQQ), which is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that trades like a stock. It is the world's most actively traded ETF. On most trading days, it is also the second most actively traded security in the U.S. QQQ represents ownership in the Nasdaq-100 Trust(SM). The Trust holds a portfolio of equity securities that comprise the NASDAQ-100 Index and aims to provide investment results that, before expenses, generally correspond with the NASDAQ-100 Index performance. Since its inception in March 1999, the Trust's total assets have grown to over $18 billion.

Additionally, companies that are removed from the Index may rejoin it at a later time. This year, American Power Conversion Corporation, Fastenal Company, First Health Group Corp, PETsMART, and Ross Stores, Inc., are again becoming components of the Index.

Earlier this month, NASDAQ also launched the NASDAQ-100 European Tracker (EQQQ), which trades on NASDAQ Europe and is designed to closely follow the NASDAQ-100 Index. EQQQ provides European investors with low cost access to the entire range of companies in the NASDAQ-100 Index in European hours, on a European market.

There are also 23 domestic mutual funds and seven international funds linked to the NASDAQ-100 Index. For more information about the NASDAQ-100 Index, including eligibility criteria, visit nasdaq-100.com .

As a result of the re-ranking of the NASDAQ-100 Index, the following 15 companies will be removed: Abgenix, Inc. (Nasdaq: ABGX - News), Andrx Group (Nasdaq: ADRX - News), Applied Micro Circuits Corporation (Nasdaq: AMCC - News), Atmel Corporation (Nasdaq: ATML - News), Charter Communications, Inc. (Nasdaq: CHTR - News), Conexant Corporation (Nasdaq: CNXT - News), Cytyc Corporation (Nasdaq: CYTC - News), Integrated Device Technology, Inc. (Nasdaq: IDTI - News), ImClone Systems Incorporated (Nasdaq: IMCL - News), i2 Technologies, Inc. (Nasdaq: ITWO - News), Protein Design Labs, Inc. (Nasdaq: PDLI - News), PMC-Sierra, Inc. (Nasdaq: PMCS - News); Rational Software Corporation (Nasdaq: RATL - News); Sepracor Inc. (Nasdaq: SEPR - News); and Vitesse Semiconductor Corporation (Nasdaq: VTSS - News).

The NASDAQ-100 Index, launched in January 1985, has risen over 346% percent since inception, although past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.

NASDAQ (OTC Bulletin Board: NDAQ - News) is the world's largest electronic stock market. With approximately 3,800 companies, NASDAQ lists more companies and trades more shares per day than any other U.S. market. Over the past five years, NASDAQ has outpaced all other U.S. markets in listing IPOs. It is home to category-defining companies that are leaders across all areas of business including technology, retail, communications, financial services, media and biotechnology industries. NASDAQ is a key driver of capital formation. For more information about NASDAQ, visit the NASDAQ Web site at nasdaq.com or the NASDAQ Newsroom(SM) at nasdaqnews.com . For more information about the NASDAQ-100, visit nasdaq-100.com .

To learn more about the criteria for inclusion to the NASDAQ-100, visit dynamic.nasdaq.com

Notes to editors:

The Trustee for the NASDAQ-100 Trust is required to adjust the composition of the Trust within three business days of the effective date of a change to the composition of the NASDAQ-100 Index.

For more complete information about NASDAQ-100 Index Tracking Stock(SM), including charges, expenses, potential risks and trust performance, obtain a prospectus from your broker, or call 800-843-2639 or visit the web site at nasdaq-100.com . Read it carefully before you invest. The NASDAQ- 100 Index Tracking Stock is subject to risks similar to those of stocks, including those regarding short selling and margin account maintenance. An investor cannot invest directly in the Index. Index performance does not reflect the fees and expenses associated with investing. While there is no assurance that the performance of the NASDAQ-100 Index can be fully matched, the NASDAQ-100 Index Tracking Stock is designed to provide investment results that generally correspond to the performance of the NASDAQ-100 Index before fees and expenses. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

The sponsor of the NASDAQ-100 Trust, a unit investment trust, is NASDAQ Financial Products Services, Inc. ("NFPS"), a wholly owned subsidiary of The Nasdaq Stock Market, Inc. ("NASDAQ," and collectively with its affiliates except NFPS, the 'Corporations"). Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate so that an investor's shares, when redeemed or sold, may be worth more or less than the original cost.

"NASDAQ" and related marks are trademarks or service marks of NASDAQ and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by NFPS. The NASDAQ-100 Index is comprised and calculated by NASDAQ without regard to the NASDAQ-100 Index Tracking Stock. The Corporations make no warranty, express or implied, and bear no liability with respect to NASDAQ-100 Index Tracking Stock. The Corporations and NFPS make no warranty, express or implied, and bear no liability with respect to the NASDAQ-100 Index, its use or any data included therein. The Corporations do not guarantee the accuracy or the completeness of the Index, or any data used to calculate the index, or determine the index components.

ALPS Distributors, Inc., a registered broker-dealer, is distributor for the Trust.

Company briefs:

The following are brief descriptions of the 15 companies added to the NASDAQ-100 Index in descending order based on market capitalization:

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. is a non-asset based global logistics provider. Services include air and ocean freight forwarding, vendor consolidation, customs clearance, marine insurance, distribution and other value added international logistics services. The Seattle, Washington, company had a market capitalization of $3.3 billion at the time of ranking.

Ross Stores, Inc. operates a national chain of off-price retail stores offering first quality, in-season, branded apparel and apparel-related merchandise for the entire family at prices that average 20% to 60% less than department and specialty stores. The company also offers merchandise for the home at similar savings. The Newark, California, company had a market capitalization of $3.2 billion at the time of ranking.

DENTSPLY International Inc. designs, develops, manufactures and markets a broad range of products for the dental market. The Company products include dental prosthetics, precious metal dental alloys, dental ceramics, dental x- ray equipment, dental handpieces, and intraoral cameras. The York, Pennsylvania, company had a market capitalization of $2.9 billion at the time of ranking.

Lamar Advertising Company is an outdoor advertising company currently operating 152 outdoor advertising companies in 44 states, logo businesses in 21 states and the province of Ontario, Canada and 39 transit advertising franchises in 14 states. The Baton Rouge, Louisiana, company had a market capitalization of $2.9 billion at the time of ranking.

Whole Foods Market, Inc. is a natural and organic foods supermarket retailer. The company has stores in the U.S. and Canada. The Austin, Texas, company had a market capitalization of $2.7 billion at the time of ranking.

First Health Group Corp. is a national health-benefits services company, specializing in providing large payors with integrated managed care solutions. First Health is a unique national managed care company serving the group health, workers' compensation and state agency markets. The Downers Grove, Illinois, company had a market capitalization of $2.6 billion at the time of ranking.

PETsMART, Inc. is a specialty retailer of services and solutions for the lifetime care of pets. The company provides a broad range of pet food and supplies, and offers complete pet training, grooming and adoption services. The Phoenix, Arizona, company had a market capitalization of $2.6 billion at the time of ranking.

Pixar Animation Studios combines creative and technical artistry to create original stories in the medium of computer animation. Pixar has created popular animated films including Toy Story; A Bug's Life; Toy Story 2; and Monsters, Inc. Pixar Animation Studios films are produced in partnership with Walt Disney Pictures. The Emeryville, California, company had a market capitalization of $2.6 billion at the time of ranking.

Fastenal Company is a distributor of industrial products. The company has stores in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Singapore. The Winona, Minnesota, company had a market capitalization of $2.6 billion at the time of ranking.

American Power Conversion Corporation is a provider of global, end-to-end infrastructure availability solutions. The company has a comprehensive products and services offering, which is designed for both home and corporate environments. The West Kingston, Rhode Island, company had a market capitalization of $2.5 billion at the time of ranking.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. is a third-party logistics company. The company provides multimodal transportation services and logistics solutions, serving 15,000 customers through a network of 146 offices in North America, South America, Europe and Asia. The Eden Prairie, Minnesota, company had a market capitalization of $2.5 billion at the time of ranking.

Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. is a provider of onshore contract drilling services to exploration and production companies in North America. The company is also engaged in the businesses of drilling and completion fluid services and pressure pumping services. The Snyder, Texas, company had a market capitalization of $2.3 billion at the time of ranking.

Gentex Corporation develops, manufactures and markets proprietary electro- optic products. The company provides auto-dimming rearview mirrors to the worldwide automotive industry and commercial fire protection products to the North American market. The Zeeland, Michigan, company had a market capitalization of $2.2 billion at the time of ranking.

Henry Schein, Inc. is a distributor of healthcare products and services to office-based healthcare practitioners in North American and European markets. The Company serves more than 400,000 customers worldwide, including dental practices and laboratories, physician practices and veterinary clinics, as well as government and other institutions. The Melville, New York, company had a market capitalization of $2.2 billion at the time of ranking.

Ryanair Holdings plc operates a low-fares, no-frills scheduled passenger airline serving short-haul, point-to-point routes in Europe from its bases at Dublin, London Stansted, Glasgow Prestwick, and Brussels (Charleroi), Frankfurt (Hahn), and Milan (Bergamo). The Dublin, Ireland company's American Depositary Receipts had a market capitalization of $2.2 billion at the time of ranking.