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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary H who wrote (16537)	12/14/2002 5:02:31 AM
From: sea_urchin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 81484

Gary >Maybe you have seen this before, in any case I believe it bears merit. I don't know what to say about the long-term Kondratieff and other cycles. Maybe they work, maybe they don't. What concerns me is the fact that so many factors are interrelated in an economic cycle, some natural, some artificial, many as result of manipulation. Therefore I can't see how there can be precision in a cycle which lasts 50 years. I think I mentioned that I'm a radio ham and I can tell you that there's frequently a lot of confusion about sun-spot cycles which are supposed to last 11 years but don't always. Furthermore the peak amplitude of the cycle varies from cycle to cycle and that also causes confusion. As far as I can make out, stocks, generally, are not going to do well in the foreseeable future. I believe what will do well depends on the degree of inflation. If there's no or little inflation or even deflation then interest-based investments would be right. If there's a lot of inflation then I presume gold, property and resources are the places to be. Frankly, I don't think anyone can be so clairvoyant as to know exactly what is going to happen in the next 10 years and precisely where one should invest. Yes, I also enjoyed Mr Russell's article. Of course, he is a major gold bull who envisages POG overtaking Dow at 4000. According to the graph I posted that event would indicate a Dow/POG ratio of 1 which, historically, has never happened before. I would be happy with 5!