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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (16605)	12/14/2002 3:46:04 AM
From: X Y Zebra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

I am no economist... Good, your vision will be clearer -g protectionism/unions are NOT the answer to this problem. That I know, but the Unions do not seem to agree and they keep pushing the envelope. Bottom line is US must compete on a world stage and if that means outsourcing virtually every piece of manual labor to china, so be it. The pain is better than the loss of an entire industry we learned that with autos. The unemployed laborers will migrate to the service economy which is not as highly paid. And so it has been so far the result. Another example of losing an entire industry is Argentina's auto industry went to Brazil, since the lunatics in power in Argentina, blinded with pride pegged the peso to the USD. It took .... What was it 10 years to ran the country into the ground, Argentinean labor became ridiculously expensive, since the peso was as strong as the dollar... result = the entire auto industry moved to Brazil, devaluations and all... I see your point. However, I believe that here in the US I believe we will reach some breaking point, given the potentially damaging circumstances that the politicians will figure out a way to "please" the crowd. I simply do not see semi-skilled (or even skilled) American labor go to the depths in price to compete with the third world. They've already called it, the events and circumstances for the Perfect Financial Storm are gathering in the horizon... easy to call and point out the main characteristics, yet I have no idea of the outcome. This is the type of scenario where massive loss of confidence may arise; the only thing left is the trigger... Also (and I cannot prove this) I believe the last gold spike to the $800s still had remnants of the old gold standard alive in it... Very true (and I remember the sentiment) A major difference between then and now is the electronic transfer of funds and in essence the "electronic" money. Gold will never achieve that mobility and in addition there is the cost of transporting and safekeeping, so for practical purposes, even if there is a substantial increase in the price of gold, I do not believe it will be substained. Having said that, I think gold is no to be ignored all together as the speculative value of gold is gathering momentum. In respect to a currency unit backed by a corresponding (and specific) units of gold, the entire idea hinges on one concept: Discipline. Those in control MUST respect whatever value they will assign to gold. Therein lies the problem... we humans are simply not evolved enough to have such discipline. If we could not do it then, now with larger populations will be near impossible... So... I do not know... perhaps a little inflation is part of the natural laws... (I am not saying it, simply suggesting it). Gold backed currency implies that every politician will behave (or be forced to) but history proves otherwise... Then... to all this mess in reference to what could happen... just add the attorneys and the circus continues... Consider... "Living-wage laws" (and the challenges based on the constitutionality of the principle) acorn.org When the city of Berkeley tried to extend its ordinance to include all businesses above a certain size in the Berkeley Marina, the first time a living-wage requirement would be determined by location rather than arising from a contractual relationship with the city, one marina restaurant, large low-wage employer, brought suit challenging the amendment’s constitutionality. RUI Monocarp. v. City of Berkeley, Hotel Employees and Restaurant Employees Local 2850, No. COO 3878 SI. Volatile times ahead....

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (16605)	12/14/2002 8:56:54 AM
From: AugustWest	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

Morning Lizzy. ... I don't think the crisis in te dollar is quite as likely now with the US as one global superpower Even the great Roman Empire fell. So too will the US Empire. Or at least confidence in the USD as a safe haven. JMO too. ... the gold standard was over of course but there was still a sense at least by some that this was some sort of currency replacement in the fed sense. Not sure I totally understand this "fed sense"(priobably because it's Saturday morning<G>) BUt gold, IMO will once again become a curreny. Thatis one thing that history has taught us over and over again. I don't have a time table for this. Might happen in our life time. Might not happen till after our grand kids are long buried. This is not to say gold can't rally from even these levels but I can't see 800s again, really. I don't know where gold will go in the S/T, but my WAG is that it will trade to at least $1200 USD some time within the next five or eight years. Just some musings on a dreary Staurday morning.