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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AC Flyer who wrote (26108)	12/14/2002 2:07:55 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello ACF Mike, <<Falling product costs = good deflation>> I agree with you, but in moderation, because while caviar is also good, choking on it is not. <<"Greenspan inflation" panic ... "Greenspan deflation" crisis>> ... We have both, because Greenspan tried to steer the economy too much, as a car on an icy road, and now we veer left and slide right, in ever increasing angle and speed, rushing to a fate that cannot be good. <<The US is in the grip of titanic positive economic forces, with an emerging recovery, increasing manufacturing output, huge productivity growth and strong personal income growth>> ... While you may be right, I do not agree. I am guessing that people will be marching on Washington during 2003, shouting "Jobs #1". <<you say, a mountain of corporate and personal debt. Yes, but the cost of servicing that debt is at historically low levels>> ... and about to rise sharply. <<our financial markets are deep and liquid and shall remain so barring a collapse in demand, which, as we know, will not happen until 2009 or so and, if we are lucky, perhaps not even then]>> ... The market looks forward, and sees what it sees, coming fast. <<NAV gain ... could melt like snow in August if you are wrong-footed by coming events>> This is what worries me, because I do not believe <<the risk of Bust is now emphatically past>>, and in fact think that we have just stepped into no-man land, without a map, with nasties chasing us, and meanies waiting for us. <<upside>> is almost entirely in difficult-to-logically-comprehend gold, tough-to-grow resource shares, and hard-to-understand China equity. I am afraid of all of them. The days of simple answers are over. Chugs, Jay