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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale Baker who wrote (15922)	12/14/2002 2:46:40 PM
From: TimbaBear	Respond to of 78656

Dale Baker CUB - started a long position on Friday. Feedback from the thread would be appreciated. Just did a quick cash flow analysis for 2002, 2001, and 2000 fiscal years. At 2002= $.46/share; 2001= $.06/share; and 2000= $1.06/share, I don't see anything in the free cash flow to spark my interest. The dividend rate of .76% is only in the money market area. It appears that the bet on this would be massive revenue increases due to the military increasing their spending for its products. I have no way of judging the likelihood of that actually occurring, but "as is" the flow to the bottom line doesn't offer me much margin of safety. At the current share price of $18.40, I could get $.92 return with a 5% CD or dividend, which is over twice the 2002 cash flow for CUB, almost 3 times the year average cash flow and almost twice the three year average. Having said all that, the chart does look interesting. Nice trend in price since June 0f 2000. I'm not buying on momentum yet. So, based on my read of the cash flow, I'd pass. Timba

To: Dale Baker who wrote (15922)	12/14/2002 5:24:43 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78656

Hard for me to call CUB a value play. It's always been strong in its two segment niches (mass transit -ticket/turnstyles if I remember, and defense). At current price, Cubic is too expensive (imo) as a value play unless someone who follows it closely sees something special or somebody can identify a catalyst. That said, I'd could see the stock moving up 50% from here. Those large government defense bill dollars will eventually flow, and CUB will get its share. I'd guess CUB will move in line with most other defense stocks. I have a couple such (can't call them value plays either), and I so am hoping the entire defense sector will rise.