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To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (209633)	12/14/2002 6:50:49 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Joan, I can guaranty you that neither number regarding unemployment is correct (in the US or EZ). But in my post I referred to relative numbers as reported , which I assume are counted in similar fashion. As to Europeans - the grass is not greener there either - from following their statements the EZ is consumed by rivalries, egos, back stabbing stupidity etc., something that will not change any time soon as I do not see a lot of love lost between the participants. In the US, the civil war is ancient history many generation ago but Europe W.W.II is 2 generation old and old rivalry still persist even if not admitted in public. Best example is the issue of the "Bismarck" - the powerful German battle ship who the Brits claimed at the time that they have sunk and at that time busting British moral. As it happen it was a British fabrication / imagination as the Germans crew sunk their own ship as proven by new archeological finds. Recently there was an uproar and denial in the UK about such an irrelevant issue that happen 60 or more years after the event. ......... and little nonsense event like those are still undermining the Euro and EZ economies in working in harmony. W.W.II is still remembered in the EZ psyche with it's animosities and rivalries.

To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (209633)	12/14/2002 7:11:50 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Germany, Japan Rupkey said the bank forecasts the dollar will rally to 95 cents per euro by mid-2003. The U.S. will expand by 2.3 percent this year and 2.8 percent next year, according to the latest Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey of economists. Europe, by contrast, will grow at a 0.8 percent rate this year and 1.8 percent in 2003, according to the European Commission. Business confidence in Germany, Europe's biggest economy, probably fell in December for a seventh straight month, according to analysts. The Ifo economic institute's confidence survey is slated for release Wednesday. Germany will probably grow at the slowest pace in nine years, according to the European Commission estimates. The Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan index, the nation's most important gauge of confidence among large manufacturers, was minus 9 in December, showing more companies were pessimistic than optimistic. `Discouraging' ``The situation in Europe and in Japan is discouraging,'' said Gregory Salvaggio, vice president for trading at Tempus Consulting in Washington. ``I can't see how the returns in Europe or in Japan could be better than the ones in the U.S. in the near future.'' Japanese economic growth probably won't reach 1.5 percent until fiscal 2005 or 2006, a panel advising Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said this week. Japan's Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa said last month the government would ``take appropriate action'' to slow the yen's surge, which is making the country's products more expensive in overseas markets. Gains in the dollar may be limited next week as analysts trimmed earnings expectations for Standard & Poor's 500 Index companies such as General Electric Co. and R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Holdings. While Wall Street predicts 14.9 percent profit growth for S&P 500 companies this quarter compared with last year, that's down from 16.8 percent analysts forecast last month. Current Account The S&P 500 had back-to-back weekly declines for the first time in two months, crimping demand for dollars. The index fell 2.5 percent last week and is down 23 percent this year. ``Without a sustained rebound in the stock markets, it will be harder to attract foreign capital into the U.S,'' said Mark Thome, a vice president of foreign exchange at Fortis USA Financial Markets. The U.S. current account gap remained near a record high in the third quarter at $127 billion, the government said this week. The shortfall in the current account, the broadest measure of a country's trade in goods and services, means the U.S. needs almost $1.4 billion a day in foreign capital to sustain the dollar's value. Japan and the 12-nation euro region have current account surpluses, boosting the supply of dollars there. quote.bloomberg.com