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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (16686)	12/14/2002 7:26:31 PM
From: MulhollandDrive	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

it will be interesting to see if th 8% resistance line holds... Early in this bear-market rally we witnessed the requisite small pullbacks, 4% and 2% this time around. Then as this bear rally matured a 7% pullback was registered as the magnitude of the mini-bearish oscillations flying in the face of the short-term bullish tide increased. A subsequent smaller 3%ish pullback then ensued, similar to what we observed as we peeled back the flesh in specimen numero dos discussed above. Déjà vu eh? The Great Bear is kindly standing aside to let the bulls frolic this time just as it has the last two times before it roared out of the shadows like a juggernaut and slaughtered the terrified bulls with one mighty claw-studded swipe. The comparisons among the three massive bear rallies’ internals are quite provocative and ominous. The killer X-Files-like suspense really soars when looking at the latest December pullback though. It has shed a little over 8% peak to trough thus far. If you scroll back up and examine the previous two graphs, you will note that none of the previous bear-market rallies has ever recovered from an 8%+ pullback! Under 8% seems manageable for some reason, the bulls can overcome a sub-8% pullback to corral the bear-market rally even higher. But any pullback over 8% has so far proven to be an insurmountable hurdle for the stampeding bulls to overcome. In addition to the dark tidings of this fresh 8%+ pullback, you will also notice a large intraday NASDAQ spike a couple days after the closing interim top to date marked by the red line above. As you remember from our second specimen’s autopsy, this final last gasp by the charging bulls seemed to mark a subtle turning point in general psychology. From this moment forward last time around the bears once again gained the upper hand over the bulls in short-term-speculation land! An 8%+ pullback coupled with a delayed failed intraday attempt to extend the life of this particular bear rally offer more evidence that this bear-market rally already has one foot in the grave. While it certainly could still run higher, the PCR sell signal discussed last week coupled with these decidedly bearish technical internals suggest the scales of probability are now drastically tilted towards the short side in the coming months.