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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GraceZ who wrote (16690)	12/14/2002 7:44:33 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 57110

Bad economic times aren't bad for everyone, they make people and companies stronger while killing off the excesses. I think a company that does well in a slow economic environment is far more likely to last then one started in a boom. I remember a New Yorker article a while back which was about all the magazines that were started in the worst of economic times. Overwhelmingly the ones that were started in recessions and depressions outlasted the zillions that were started in booms. I agree. I think that a bear market is healthy for the economy and the market at a number of different levels. Bringing up the homies and the thread where they ignored the evidence in front of them, do you see any similarities to your own use of money flow? If you acted on your money flow analysis once it went positive, it certainly wouldn't give you the best entry. Similar to the people looking for shorts amongst the homies last year. But, your MF analysis has you looking for the long opportunities while there is still significant potential downside. That makes sense as long as you don't enter too early....Same with the homebears.

To: GraceZ who wrote (16690)	12/15/2002 12:59:16 AM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

Based on bullish percentages, I could make a case that the bull market on the NYSE ended in 1998. I believe you. Money flow showed exactly the same thing, as it now shows the bear is over. How much history do you have with this indicator... can you say that a 2-year window is fairly consistent, since 98 was the bull peak? (and when in 98- if after LTCM then its only a year early) We've had a stealth bull market in small growth equities since (I believe) July. I would love to buy beas at 5 and Amazon at 9 and vtss at say, 1 (which is still 40% above the lows for that one). When we have down days- some of which have been fairly severe I don't get the kind of action in these smaller stocks that tells me new lows are around the corner. Beas have been over 9 for a long time now.... and here I'm waiting for 5. If this is the inverse situation of the 98-00 "stealth bear" (for lack of a better term)... then are we looking at maybe one more year of a bear where some of these don't hit new lows even though the indexes take a beating? When did the money flow indicators turn up btw, October? I've pretty much given up on amzn in the single digits because we didn't get that in october. Lizzie