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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (20136)	12/14/2002 9:51:04 PM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 30712

Message #20136 from Win-Lose-Draw at Dec 14, 2002 8:05 PM imo it will be worse in the US than in japan for the simple reason that japanese citizenry had actual savings. "we" have none. no cushion, no way to dampen the oscillations. it's going to be a rough decade ahead... All the "cushions" in Japan are what is prolonging the process there. Bit like the airlines in the US keep going in and out of Chapter 11....

To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (20136)	12/15/2002 12:13:12 AM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30712

it will be worse in the US than in japan for the simple reason that japanese citizenry had actual savings. "we" have none. no cushion, no way to dampen the oscillations. it's going to be a rough decade ahead... I am starting to doubt that the US is going to be like Japan. Sure the savings rate is low but there is a key difference. That is, the US is the big importer of the world's goods while Japan was an exporter when its troubles began. So an export oriented economy with a strong industrial base has less ammunition to turn itself around. No such thing as "export tariffs". However, the US can easily start import tariffs on strategic industries when and if it deems necessary. We just won't get deflation; it would be inflation, imho. Tariffs used in the steel industry and can select others if more jobs start disappearing (can use the anti-dumping law). So much of the world is dependent on exporting to the US and not the other way around. That makes all the difference in the work as the Japanese probably realize. Not saying it can't be worse than Japan but there seems to be key differences.