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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (20143)	12/15/2002 12:35:19 AM
From: lurqer	Respond to of 30712

Shades of Smoot-Hawley are you nuts? "He who does not learn from history is doomed to repeat it." lurqer

To: mishedlo who wrote (20143)	12/15/2002 12:49:25 AM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30712

Shades of Smoot-Hawley are you nuts? They might be nuts enough but I would not think you to be. If so much of the world is dependent on the US to buy and we raise tarrifs, what will that do to: a) raise our costs b) lower the ability of others to have the means to buy our stuff Retalitory tarriffs by everone on everything is just exactly what we need to start a worldwide depression Steel tarrifs are bad enough and downright stupid IMO. If we start putting tarrifs on all kinds of stuff and everyone else follows suit we are in deep shit all around. They did the steel tarrif's. So are they nuts?<g> Who would want to put tarrif's on US goods in retaliation? China? Taiwan? Korea? India? I bet none retaliate; they cannot afford to; they are like too dependent on EXPORTS---just like JAPAN. Only Europeans could and their goods are unlikely to be targetted anyways in such a scenario. The big worry is deflation. If there is a choice to be made, I believe inflation is preferred. I am this could be a last resort but it will work, imho. A much weaker dollar would also be a great help..but the process of getting it to weaken could lead to some short term uncertainty. I still say being a big importer gives it much more flexibility. Does anyone really think the government did not realize the effects of a strong dollar policy? They knew what happens to manufacturing in a free trade world when you have a strong currency. I think they are much smarter than we give them credit, certainly much smarter than us here on SI <g>; they are well aware that the path taken is unlike Japan. Who knows, maybe there are some unexpected turns and it gets bad...no crystal ball. Again, this sort of plan can be made in the US (AS A LAST RESORT) but it is not possible in Japan simply because of the key difference of being dependent on exports. One key note: It does not even have to happen. It can simply be a threat to such countries to allow competition in their protected markets. Force them to open their markets or else face the consequences. Right now it is better to let them develop their economies and hope they will open up in time. If they still do not, then the threat of tarrifs will work. So we actually end up with more free trade working from a position of power.