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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (23517)	12/15/2002 4:45:43 PM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

Art, CB sales and forward sales have been making up for production short falls for years (yes I know forward sales are a conundrum to supply, but whatever). Sorry, but most of the gold mines have been ramping production already just to survice on gold prices near their costs. Wouldn't be surprised if many were high grading to keep their costs in line. Many of the ones with high costs are closed and don't exist anymore. Remember Pegasus? Remember Sunshine (silver, well it's still there on the pink sheets)? Heck, I wish I had not cleaned up an old portfolio, but there were quite a few that went under. In any case, even at 400 bucks an ounce these mines can't be brought back into service in under a year. So where is all this new supply coming from?? Now that the price is going up the CB's aren't selling (limit by Washington Agreement) and mines are closing their hedges. Furthermore, the price of gold is not tied to supply as closely as most commodities. It is however tied to DEMAND and PERCEPTION. Best, Roebear

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (23517)	12/15/2002 9:02:59 PM
From: t4texas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

well gold futures have broken the $330 barrier and moved into an upward sloping channel that could move to $350 in the next few months (or six months if you wish). i think it all hangs on the dollar and not on gold production from mines you are contemplating. until or if gold moves to $400 and stays there for a while, i think you should be more concerned with charts and the dollar up/down than future gold mine production and future gold mines opening up. (i should add that the $350 number looks ok unless gold futures move below $330 again and then back through $325. if that were to happen, you would not be worried about mining production anyway.)