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Technology Stocks : Full Disclosure Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: advocatedevil who wrote (3264)	12/15/2002 9:52:34 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13403

OT: I wish I could say that I think my comments will be completely correct but I can't. Especially based on the fact that my short term trading has been profoundly poor. What I can say is that I think they will prove accurate given enough time. You have a true gift for for short term trading and I think you should stick with that until the indicators I follow on the charts provided by Vessilin tell us another bottom has arrived. If you look through these charts carefully then you will see what I see which is that while you cannot time day to day movements you can clearly call the bottoms and tops within a few sessions too. investorshub.com Although we may see a rally off the 50 day simple moving averages this week I would not be a long investor here for very long at all if I were you. We have a top in and with a war looming, oil prices are rising which always slows down our economy. The fact that gold stocks are breaking out higher now suggests that this is not yet the time for long term portfolio buying. Despite all the help from the FED and excellent consumer support for the economy this stock market is overvalued in my opinion. It is going to fall further. It is likely going to set new lows some time next year. Best of luck with whatever you decide. RtS

To: advocatedevil who wrote (3264)	12/15/2002 10:18:39 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13403

OT AD, It has been my position that the stock market will not crash while employment (and aggregate income and consumption) are steady or rising. So for me the decision to stay fully invested is based on my expectation/hope that employment will continue to support the current level of consumer spending. But the data from the previous week is testing that faith. In the past two weeks my accounts dropped approx 25%. And I expect the down trend to continue until we get positive reports about personal income and spending. As a fully invested long, I am encouraged that hardly any tech company has issued a warning so far this Q. The ones with a mid-Q update have been positive. Some very positive. Contrary to what some writers say, everyone I know is buying a computer, DVD, PVR, PDA, digital camera, or notebook computer. I also know that millions of people have been accumulating the proceeds of matured CD's into money market accounts. And they would like to buy stocks. But they're waiting for a sign. When will that be ? I think it will be after Jan 15, when the Q reports again will show that earnings are positive, and the economy is not slipping back into recession. Good luck in whatever you decide. Sarmad

To: advocatedevil who wrote (3264)	12/16/2002 10:07:32 AM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13403

OT AD RE: LT Investment Your ill-timed and abrupt exit from your "LT" portfolio in October suggests to me that you may not be cut out for this type of investment. I think there is just too much cognitive dissonance for a scalper to also manage a LT portfolio. So what should you do with the 750K that you think should be allocated to LT investment? I would step back a minute and ask myself how I arrived at such an allocation. What is your situation, your goals and your expectations? How old are you and your dependants? Are you "retired"? What is your expected future income and needs? If you have kids who have not yet completed college or grad school, I would strongly recommend that you take a good look at the tax advantages of 529 Plans, because they are very substantial and a good education is quite expensive these days. The downside of the 529 is that you cannot micromanage the portfolio. The most you can do is to pick and choose from about 200 different MFs that you can trade once or twice a year. At any rate, I would suggest that you farm the 750K out to an expert at that type of investment while you continue to focus on ST trading. Other than 529s, I think one of the better choices is to let Warren Buffett manage some of your LT money by investing in BRK/A or BRK/B, since you can do so w/o the tax disadvantages of a MF. Sam

To: advocatedevil who wrote (3264)	12/16/2002 8:39:14 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13403

HI AD, My best idea is a small cap - that has just turned profitable after 8 quarters in the red. Subject 9615 During these quarters they've reinvested all profits and more into R&D. Most of those projects are now real products and R&D is on the decline. kvh.com It is the payoff side now with two new initiatives still in the pipeline -The modulator is back burner awaiting a telecom pickup and the low profile live phase array antennae anticipated to be intro'd in Las Vegas at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas 1/09/03. Check out this thread it is the most complete thread in SI - JMHO. This stock is a multi bagger IMO. Full disclosure - I've owned this stock for years and have accumulated a position that is - well over 1% outstanding. This stock missed the bubble completely and I expect will be an IBD "NEW AMERICA" stock in the next up cycle. I'm very long and maybe blinded - but I really like it. I can't tell anybody what to do with their money - but that is what I have done with mine. Your trading is great - but in my way of thinking should also be enhanced by long term buy and hold stocks that can offer a 20% tax rate on huge percentage gains. Best of trades. Bob