Most Unconvinced on Iraq War
Two-thirds believe Bush has failed to make the case an attack would be justified. Many
think weapons are there, but they want proof.
December 17, 2002
THE TIMES POLL
E-mail story
latimes.com
By Maura Reynolds, Times Staff Writer
WASHINGTON -- WASHINGTON -- Despite a
concerted effort by the Bush administration, more than
two-thirds of Americans believe the president has failed
to make the case that a war with Iraq is justified,
according to a Los Angeles Times poll.
The overwhelming majority of respondents -- 90% --
said they do not doubt that Iraq is developing weapons
of mass destruction. But in the absence of new
evidence from U.N. inspectors, 72% of respondents,
including 60% of Republicans, said the president has not
provided enough evidence to justify starting a war with
Iraq.
The results underscore the importance of the outcome
of U.N. arms inspections underway in Iraq if the Bush
administration expects to gain clear public support for an
attack.
"I'm not against [war] if it is necessary," said
59-year-old Kramer Smith, a preacher, carpenter and
registered Republican from Bloomfield, Iowa, one of a
number of respondents who explained their views in
follow-up interviews. "But I think we need to be pretty
sure before we start pulling in the big guns. If they could
put their hands on evidence of real production of
weapons of mass destruction, then I would say go ahead
and do it."
The poll also found that support for a possible war
appears to be weakening, with 58% saying they support
a ground attack on Iraq. In an August Times poll, 64%
said they would support a ground attack. Last January,
after President Bush first denounced Saddam Hussein in
his State of the Union address, the Times and other polls
found support for military action greater than 70%.
"Still, almost three-quarters of Americans approve of the
way George W. Bush is handling the threat of terrorism
in the country, and nearly three out of five also approve
of his handling of the country's affairs," said Susan
Pinkus, who directed The Times poll.
Traditionally, support is low before a president declares
war, but increases after troops are in the field.
"If he actually does go to war, I suspect people will
swing behind him as they did in the Gulf War," said John
Mueller, an expert on war and public opinion at Ohio
State University. "But right now, there isn't all that much
enthusiasm for the war."
That lack of support may stem from the impression that
the president has failed to present enough hard evidence
to prove that Hussein possesses weapons of mass destruction and is prepared to
use them. The administration has spent much of the last three months trying to
build a case for war -- internationally at the United Nations, and domestically
during the president's frenetic campaigning in advance of midterm elections last
month.
"How come they can show satellite photos of nuclear sites in Iran but they can't
find the same in Iraq?" asked Nancy Carolan, 52, a jewelry artist on the Hawaiian
island of Kauai. "I don't think they're justified, but they are just going to do it
anyway."
The poll also indicates that Americans do not agree with the president's argument
that any error or omission in the arms declaration Iraq sent to the United Nations
earlier this month is adequate to justify war.
Instead, 63% of respondents said war would be justified only if the United Nations
finds a pattern of serious violations by Iraq. Just 22% agreed with the
administration's position; 6% said it would depend on the nature of the omissions;
and 9% said they were not sure or declined to reply.
Almost six in 10 say it is unlikely that the U.N. inspectors will find Iraqi weapons
of mass destruction.
"I don't doubt that they do" have weapons of mass destruction, said respondent
Victoria Ellison, 57, a Democrat from Burbank. "But I want to see proof. "
If U.N. inspections fail to turn up evidence of Iraqi weapons programs, almost half
of respondents said they would oppose war. Only 41% would favor war, and 10%
said they don't know whether they would favor or oppose.
The Times poll also suggests Americans are more informed about the possibility of
war with Iraq, with 84% saying they are following the news closely -- up from
76% in August. Sixty-three percent of respondents in the recent poll said they feel
war is inevitable, 27% said war may or may not occur, and 4% said they believed
war would not occur.
Respondents also expressed concern that the president may not be getting
balanced information from his advisors. Fifty-one percent of respondents said they
believe Bush's advisors favor going to war; 20% said the advisors present a
balanced view; and 11% said the advisors are opposed to war. Roughly a fifth said
they are not sure whether Bush's advisors favor or oppose war.
If the United States should launch an attack, 68% of Americans want it to be only
with the support of the international community. Only 26% said they were willing
to support war if the United States acted alone.
"I am not opposed to doing something, but it would have to be in the right
circumstances," said Geoff George, a 20-year-old independent from Albany, Ore.
"I would probably be a little more supportive if the U.N. and the rest of the world
united and we all decided to do it together. But [if we act] as one nation, I don't
think there would ever be enough evidence for me."
However, at least theoretically, Americans agree with the administration's
argument that sometimes preemptive or preventive war is justified. Sixty-four
percent of respondents, including 49% of Democrats, believe the United States
should reserve the right to launch a preemptive attack against regimes that
threaten the country. Only 25% said they opposed such a policy, and 11% said
they did not have an opinion on the issue.
If the United States does go to war, the decision is likely to have serious
ramifications at home and abroad, respondents said. Sixty-seven percent said war
is likely to increase the threat of terrorist attacks in the United States; 51% said
they feel it would destabilize the Middle East; and 45% said it will have a negative
effect on the U.S. economy.
They are also concerned about the possibility of military casualties. Of those who
initially said they support a ground attack against Iraq, 18% said they would do so
only if no American soldiers are killed. However, support falls off gradually as the
theoretical death toll is raised, but 29% said they would support war no matter
what the cost in American lives.
Finally, in the wake of a war, the vast majority of Americans -- 70%, according to
the poll -- feel the country has an obligation to stay and rebuild Iraq.
The Times poll was conducted Dec. 12 to 15 and interviewed 1,305 adults
nationwide. Margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. |
