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To: jan_vandermeer who wrote (4122)	12/17/2002 12:27:52 PM
From: Softechie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29602

CHARTING MONEY: Nasdaq Takes Toys, Goes Home 17 Dec 12:00 By Stephen Cox, CMT A Dow Jones Newswires Column NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Impressive upside breakouts of U.S. stock indexes Monday are crumbling late Tuesday morning because the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite didn't want to play on Monday's close. If the Nasdaq's non-confirmation persists through the Tuesday's close, then it's all over for the bulls. Treasury futures aren't going anywhere in the meantime and the dollar remains technically weak. Most U.S. stock indexes recorded tentative upside breakouts on Monday. For now, however, the breakout is subject to a single, telling, qualification that was alluded to in Monday's column, that is, the non-confirmation of the Nasdaq Composite. The index on Monday failed to close above 1419.11 breakout resistance. A genuine long-term move will be confirmed by all the indexes. Thus, Nasdaq's non-confirmation is a definite caution signal to the bulls. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed Monday above breakout resistance at 8580.82. As of this writing, the DJIA had edged below 8580.82. A continued slide will mean a short-term loss of roughly 200 - 400 more points. March 10-Year Pinned And Wriggling For Now The CBOT leading March 10-year T-note, which I take to be long-term bullish, nonetheless betrayed technical weakness Monday when it settled below 112-16, which is the value of the 13-day exponential moving average. As of this writing, the intraday high is 112-16. Until that resistance is taken out, the contract will be liable to a dip to 111-16 - 111-00 at least, and a move down to the Dec. 2 low of 110-03 couldn't be ruled out in that case. For now, the March T-note continues to consolidate broadly, between 116-00 and 110-00, roughly speaking. That consolidation is consistent with the a long-term bull that promises to get underway again early next year. EUR Eating Up A Dollar Lunch The euro moved up sharply against the dollar Tuesday morning, nearly to target resistance at $1.0340. That's strong resistance, but the selloff from the intraday high is finding support where it should, at $1.0262. It's likely that a correction will only briefly interrupt the euro's climb towards $1.0438. The dollar's failure against the yen Tuesday at Y121.79 resistance is a straightforward bear signal. A decisive move below Y120.00 will have taken out weekly uptrend line support and pointed the dollar down to Y119.51 - Y117.98 support. Watch that support closely because a decisive move below it could easily cost the dollar another 10 or so yen. Fear Indexes Scared Stiff Resistance Tuesday The futures markets for crude oil and gold shot up to important resistance targets, and preliminary reading suggest that the resistance will be taken out. The Nymex leading January crude oil contract has edged into the important $29.50 - $30.98 resistance band. The surge of technical momentum that accompanied Monday's strong gap-up trading implies that the resistance will be taken out. That event may, however, be preceded by a dip to $28.45 support. In any case, the contract is now technically strong above $27.30. The Comex leading gold contract has run smack into $339.50 resistance. If that resistance is taken out, then a pause at $348.00 would be routine. But a large bullish triangle formation competed on the weekly chart implies an extended move toward $365.10 by the end of April 2003 at latest. The signal will be a weekly settlement above $348.00. To try the Charting Markets weekly technical newsletter go to djnewswires.com For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Telerate, page 4073; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "Charting Markets." -By Stephen Cox, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2064; stephen.cox@dowjones.com (Stephen Cox, a chartered market technician, is chief technician for Dow Jones Newswires.) (Data by CSI, Commodity Research Bureau) (END) Dow Jones Newswires 12-17-02 1200ET